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Forecast of the probability of reelection and results of electing heads of executive authorities of the Subjects of the Federation in 2003-2004

N in table 2

Region

Head of executive authorities in 2002 (at the moment of forecasting)

Results as of 16.11.2004

Forecasted probability of reelection - 75%. Result - 100%

25

Leningrad province

Serdyukov V.P.

reelected in the I round

6

Kaluga province

Artamonov À. D.

reelected in the I round

76

Omsk province

Polezhaev L. Ê.

reelected in the I round

77

Òomsk province

Kress V. Ì.

reelected in the I round

28

Pskov province

Mikhailov Å. E.*

II round set

87

Sakhalin province

Farkhutdinov I.P.*

perished

Forecasted probability of reelection - 67%. Result - 75%

78

Chita province

Geniatulin R. F.

reelected in the I round

24

Kaliningrad province

Yegorov V. G.

reelected in the II round **

Forecasted probability of reelection - 60%. Result - 60%

26

Murmansk province

Yevdokimov Yu. À.

reelected in the I round

10

Moscow province

Gromov B. V.

reelected in the I round

17

Yaroslavl province

Lisitsyn À. I.

reelected in the I round

12

Ryazan province

Lyubimov V. N.

not reelected

68

Altai territory

Surikov À. À.

not reelected

Forecasted probability of reelection - 50%. Result - 93%

18

Moscow

Luzhkov Yu. Ì.

reelected in the I round

45

Mordovian Republic

Merkushkin N. I.

reelected in the I round

4

Voronezh province

Kulakov V. G.

reelected in the I round

14

Tambov province

Betin Î. I.

reelected in the I round

75

Novosibirsk province

Tolokonskiy V. À.

reelected in the I round

73

Ust-Ordynsky Buryatsky autonomous okrug

Maleev V. G.

reelected in the I round

85

Koryaksky autonomous okrug

Loginov V. À.

reelected in the II round **

29

Saint Petersburg

Yakovlev V. À.*

transferred to the federal bodies

Forecasted probability of reelection - 40%. Result - 75%

23

Vologda province

Pozgalev V. V.

reelected in the I round

27

Novgorod province

Prusak Ì. Ì.

reelected in the I round

47

Udmurt Republic

Volkov À. À.

reelected in the I round

51

Orenburg province

Chernyshev À. À.

reelected in the I round

43

Bashkortostan Republic

Rakhimov Ì. G.

reelected in the II round **

49

Kirov province

Sergeenkov V. N.

not reelected

53

Perm province

Trutnev Yu. P.*

transferred to the federal bodies

Forecasted probability of reelection - 33%. Result - 30%

1

Belgorod province

Savchenko Å. S.

reelected in the I round

59

Sverdlovsk province

Rossel E. E.

reelected in the II round **

21

Arkhangelsk province

Yefremov À. À.

not reelected

15

Tver province

Platov V. I.

not reelected

35

Republic of Karachai-Cherkess

Semenov V. Ì.

not reelected

57

Ulyanovsk province

Shamanov V. À.*

transferred to the federal bodies

40

Astrakhan province

Guzhvin À. P.*

died

*Were not taken into account while calculating the results.

**Victory in the second round was estimated as 0,5 point.


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