Alfa Bank analysts say the main restriction is time needed to negotiate loan terms and procedure, raising doubts over the planned December 19 auction of Surgutneftegaz after a Houston court granted an injunction blocking the sale.

“Even if the US court ruling does not prevent the property of YUKOS shareholders from being auctioned off, at least it will make Russian officials more careful in the future,” analysts say. According to Veles Capital, Sberbank, Vneshtorgbank and Gazprombank could lend money to Gazprom.

Analysts at Prospect investment company also think Gazprom could borrow inside Russia. They do not rule out that some foreign banks will not pull out of the international consortium of lenders despite the US ruling, and Gazprom will have enough cash to buy Surgutneftegaz. Analysts think the auction will be held on December 19 as US courts don’t have jurisdiction in the YUKOS case. At the same time, they say, even if Yuganskneftegaz is not auctioned off, this will not be a big problem for the government. “In this case, the main production unit of YUKOS could be transferred to state property to settle the company’s debts, to be sold later,” they suggested.

On Thursday, a US bankruptcy court in Houston granted a temporary injunction blocking the auction of Yuganskneftegaz. YUKOS now has 10 business days to seek a permanent injunction. The YUKOS management hoped that the consortium of international banks, including Deutsche Bank, ABN AMRO, BNP Paribas, Calyon, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DrKW) and JP Morgan, would refuse a loan to Gazprom, estimated at about $10 billion. All those banks have property in the United States, and they have to respect American laws.

Yuganskneftegaz is the largest oil production subsidiary of YUKOS, yielding about 60 percent of the company’s production. All of Yuganskneftegaz’s shares are frozen, as well as the assets of other YUKOS’s production subsidiaries –Tomskneft and Samaraneftegaz. The freeze was imposed by court order as collateral against YUKOS’s tax debt. The company’s total tax debt for 2000-2003 is estimated by its management at $27.54 billion. The Court Bailiffs Service of Russia’s Justice Ministry plans to auction off 43 ordinary shares of Yuganskneftegaz, which is 76.79 percent of the company’s authorized capital. The nominal share price is RUR 177,889.8 per share. The starting price of the stake is RUR 246.753 billion (about $8.6 billion).