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By 2010, conditions will be created in Russia for the formation of a broad middle class, which will include people with incomes six times greater than the subsistence minimum. The percentage of such middle class people could rise by about 20 percent to 50-60 percent, says a draft program for Russia’s social and economic development in 2005-2008, published by the Economy Ministry on Tuesday.
According to Economy Ministry officials, the problem of creating a broad middle class and reducing poverty would be resolved after 2010. The strengthening of the middle class will help increase the effective consumer demand and stimulate growth in corresponding industries, the document says.
The problem of poverty will be resolved as soon as by 2007. The percentage of people with incomes below the subsistence level is expected to drop from 17.3 percent (24.9m people) in 2004 to 5.2 percent (7.2m people) in 2015. The number of people with incomes slightly above the subsistence level will also reduce significantly.
Given rising real incomes and social measures to support the poor, differentiation of personal incomes is expected to reduce substantially. In 2004, the incomes of the upper 10 percent of Russia’s rich are expected to be 14.8 times greater than the incomes of the bottom 10 percent of the country’s poor. In 2015, the figure is expected to drop to 13.5.
If the agricultural strategy is implemented, a gap in living standards for rural and urban population will also narrow. The percentage of rural population with incomes below the subsistence level will drop from 63.5 percent in 2005 to 42 percent in 2015, while average wages are expected to increase 2.5 times.
Russia’s per capita GDP measured by purchasing power parity will be $16,600 to $20,200 by 2015. This is on par with the 2003 level for some of Europe’s economically developed countries like Portugal and Czech Republic, as well as some oil producing Arab countries.
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