Speaking at a meeting of the State Duma, Gref said high oil prices (currently at $35 per barrel) did not have a positive impact on the Russian economy anymore. On the contrary, this factor contributed to economic stagnation in the third quarter of 2004, according to Gref.

He said Russia could achieve a GDP growth of 7 to 7.5 percent a year by 2008-2010. The Economy Minister stressed that this would only be possible if a program for Russia’s medium term social and economic development was fully implemented. “12-13 percent is absolutely unrealistic,” he noted.

According to Gref, the previous program for the country’s medium term social and economic development was not fully implemented. He said only a third of that program had been fulfilled. He expressed hope that the new program would be approved by the government in December 2004.

Earlier, Andrey Klepach, Chairman of the Economy Ministry’s Department for Macroeconomic Forecasting, said Russia’s 2004 GDP growth could be lower than the planned 6.9 percent. He also said the GDP had grown 6.7 percent in January-October. In October 2004, the GDP grew 5 percent compared with October 2003. Klepach said October was a good month for the economy.

As for the fourth quarter of 2004, Economy Ministry officials say the GDP will grow 0.6 percent a month. The manufacturing sector is also expected to grow in the fourth quarter.