Russian participation in the Kyoto Protocol will help increase the energy efficiency in the economy and ease the transition to a post-industrial economy.

Viktor Danilov-Danilyan,
Director of the Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences

By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, Russian will gain more advantages than it will take on risks. Many point to slowed economic growth as a potential risk. According to the Protocol Russia should not exceed the greenhouse gas levels reached in 1990 until 2012. Opponents of ratification predict that this will occur much sooner, in 2009 or 2010. However, these calculations are based on an entire series of errors and manipulations. First of all, they take as the basis for determining the amount of emissions in 1990 data from the International Energy Agency. This is not official data and will not be used to determine mandatory levels. The IEA acted very simply. It divvied up emissions among the USSR’s republics according to their population. However, the structure of the economies of individual republics varied dramatically and most manufacturing using large amounts of energy was concentrated in Russia. Russia also has the coldest climate and therefore produced substantially more greenhouse gasses per capita. Moreover, ratification’s opponents do not take into account changes that have occurred since 1999 in the real sector. As a consequence of these changes, the energy and carbon consumption in the GDP has shrunk notably.
Not a single sensible scenario gives reason to believe that the 1990 level will be exceeded before 2012. The faster the economy grows, the faster carbon consumption in the GDP will sink. Energy efficient, high tech, and environmentally friendly industry, competitive in terms of both cost and product quality, offers the best chances for economic growth. For instance, China, which is frequently cited as a model growth economy, has increased its energy efficiency and cut carbon-based fuel consumption for the last 25 years.
If Russia does not reach 1990 levels for greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, we will have the opportunity to sell quotas, the difference between the actual emissions and 1990 levels from 2008 to 2012.
The other advantage of ratification is the possibility to participate in a variety of interesting joint projects. Russia is an excellent site for such projects, especially in sectors which are directly or indirectly associated with large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions such as public heating, metal production, paper production, cement, and housing and utilities. Russia uses three times more energy to achieve one unit of GDP than the EU. As a result, the environmental impact of investments, or the emissions reduction per unit of capital investment, is exponentially greater in Russia than in Europe. There are many potential projects out there. Who will cut emissions in developed countries? Naturally, corporations will and they pay close attention to cost. If they are forced to reduce emissions, they will look for the best place to do it at the lowest cost. The answer is obvious: in Russia. The joint project approach assumes that the investor who reduces emissions in another country will have this reduction counted toward his Kyoto protocol requirements.
Another important thing to keep in mind is that lazy people need to be motivated. Putting the energy industry in order might be just the motivation we need. As fossil fuel combustion is the main source of greenhouse gasses, this is the first place to be put in order. And Russia needs a new order. After ratification of the Protocol, Russian companies will be forced to take emissions into account and control them.
Russian participation in the Kyoto process will bring progressive structural changes to our county. All measures that aim to decrease energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions will have an extremely beneficial effect on the economy because it will mean that material resources will be replaced by information resources. This in turn means the intellectualization of the economy and the beginning of a post-industrial economy, an economy of knowledge. Critics of Kyoto Protocol have yet to offer anything better to lead Russia in this direction.

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