For his part, Yevgeny Shtange, Managing Director of ZAO Trinfico, thinks the oil company’s current shareholders will lose control of the company. In his opinion, two scenarios are possible: either additional shares will be issued or the controlling interest will be given to the government as collateral for the tax claim. An additional share issue had already been priced in, Mr. Shtange noted. Any settlement of the conflict between YUKOS and the Russian Tax Ministry would have a positive impact on the oil company, he stressed.

Meanwhile, if the freeze on YUKOS's bank account is not lifted over the next few days, the oil company will have to stop its operations. If YUKOS stopped oil production, prices for oil would rise further, Mr. Shtange said. YUKOS accounts for 2 percent of the world’s oil production. In addition, the oil company generates “several percent” of the Russian GDP, and its operating problems should be solved within the framework of state policy. It is unlikely that the government is interested in YUKOS shutting down its oil production, the expert believes.

In the opinion of Alexander Razuvayev, an analyst at Megatrastoil, the situation around YUKOS remains very negative and uncertain, and there seems to be no positive factors at all. “The probability is high that the company will face further tax bills for 2002 and 2003. Investments are losing value quickly. This situation is a direct consequence of the actions of YUKOS key shareholders, who should not have mixed business and politics and rejected a back-to-back deal with Sibneft shareholders. Events surrounding YUKOS do not change our optimistic view of Russia’s future. Problems of a separate company and prospects for the development of our great country should be distinguished,” Mr. Razuvayev said.