18 June 2004 02:40
Russian stock market starts to calm down
MOSCOW. June 18 (Interfax) - The Russian stock market began to calm down Friday after storming up on Thursday and
speculators took profits on various shares.
As of 2:00 p.m., Moscow time, on the RTS, shares were up 1.9% to 5.9%, but Yukos, which soared Thursday after
President Vladimir Putin said the government did not want Yukos to go bankrupt, fell.
Yukos shares were down 3.1% to 247 rubles on the MICEX. On the RTS, Yukos was up 13.9% from the last deal on Thursday
at 5:10 p.m., Moscow time, when trading with the shares was stopped, but down 4.8% from the opening price at $8.425.
The market is correcting up after tumbling over the past two months and gains could continue over the next few days,
analysts say.
It is not the time to get over excited about Yukos shares: it could
be that judges will take tough measures against the company and not
The market is intent on making the most of Thursday's boost, but there is no serious selling just yet, said
Alexei Khmelenko of Uniastrum bank. "The fact that, after surging over 30%, Yukos shares corrected down just 3%-4%
inspires optimism and there is hope that the growth will continue," he said.
"Now those that missed out on Thursday's gains are buying and those that did not miss out are taking
profits. Bullish and bearish forces are about even and the market is trying to calm down," Alexei Chernukh of
Olimpiyskiy bank said. "In announcing that they do not want to see Yukos bankrupt, the authorities made a step
toward compromise and this had a positive impact on investors. The market has already become accustomed to the idea that
the company's case against the Tax Ministry will be lost and that bankruptcy will follow, but it seems Yukos will
survive - although not without losses," he said.
Several important issues remain in the resolution of the Yukos
situation, said Andrei Rozhkov of Kapital investment group. "For
Analysts say investors should be cautious about buying Yukos shares because it is almost impossible to calculate the
risks in these instruments.
react to the president's words - in which case the market will go down again, Sergei Suverov of Zenit bank
said.
"Whether the shares have reached rock bottom or not is not currently determined by technical factors, but the
situation with protecting shareholders rights, including minority shareholders, in a company where many investors put in
serious money, including U.S. pension funds," he said.
example: will the main shareholders agree to sell their shares, what will the sale mechanism be, will the government
agree to the scheme, what is the scenario for judicial authorities, will there be tax claims against Yukos for
2001-2003: These issues will probably be resolved in the next few weeks," he said. "In such an uncertain
situation, the best strategy on the market will be short-term buying of Yukos shares, with temporary investment for one
to one and a half weeks," Rozhkov said.
We cannot yet say that Yukos has avoided bankruptcy, Pavel Suprunov of Rosbank says. "The authorities have only
made a first step and it is not clear what situation will follow, considering that Putin's statement came after
more than six months since Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested," he said.
Tension on the interbank loan market will contain further growth for stocks, Khmelenko said.
On the RTS, prices were up 3.2% for Norilsk Nickel, 2.2% for Lukoil, 2% for Mosenergo, 3.1% for Rostelecom, 1.9% for
Surgutneftegas, 5.6% for Sibneft, and 5.9% for Tatneft.
Unified Energy System shares slid 1.4%. Khmelenko attributes this to sales after Thursday's high enthusiasm
throughout the market encouraged buying. "Uncertainty about genco auctions remains so there is no real investment
demand in the UES sector," he said.
The RTS index climbed 1.71% to 597.12 points.
The MICEX composite went down 0.19% to 554.97.
Trading volume was at $26.09 million on the RTS (including $17.451 million in direct deals), and 10.233 billion
rubles on the MICEX.
Gazprom shares on the St. Petersburg were up 2.4% at 59.62 rubles in volume of over 29.554 million shares.
The S&P/RUX composite ruble index rose 2.17% to 749.36, and the index in dollars added 2.14% to 153.85.
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