17 June 2004 12:19
More spending on research will lessen Russia`s dependence on oil - minister
[Presenter] The Russian government today [17 June] began discussing next year's budget. Yelena Filippova is live
on the line from our studio in the White House [Russian government HQ].
[Correspondent] The [government] meeting started with a report by Economic Development Minister German Gref on the
forecast for the country's socio-economic development in 2005 and the following two years. As in previous years,
oil prices and the analysis of the situation and trends on the world oil markets form the backbone of the forecast.
Gref forecasts a rise in oil extraction in Russia, as well as a rise in oil exports. Oil prices in 2006 are expected
to be 26 dollars a barrel. In this case, GDP will rise by 5.9 per cent, while inflation will, according to the
ministry's forecast, meet the target and not exceed 8.5 per cent. The rouble will continue to strengthen but labour
productivity will increase too. Real incomes of the population will rise by 8.6 per cent.
The Economic Development Ministry has also drawn up a less optimistic scenario, based on the oil price of 22 dollars
a barrel. Here, figures are understandably somewhat more modest.
In order to ditch its dependence on oil, the Russian economy should increase the share of spending on research and
education, Gref believes. He quoted figures showing that the share of innovation products in the structure of Russian
industry is currently estimated at just 4 per cent, while in developed countries the figure is 35 per cent. A drastic
change is required, Gref believes.
[Gref] Without tying together budget policy, policy on science and technology and policy on education, the shape of
the Russian economy cannot be transformed, and excessive dependence on oil cannot be left behind. It takes quite a long
time to resolve these structural problems and make the necessary institutional changes, and it will take at least three
or four years until a whole range of projects start bearing fruit.
[Correspondent] Gref also spoke about the need to reduce state spending and urged ministries and departments to
increase the efficiency of their spending as much as possible.
Right now, Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin is speaking about the main parameters of the budget for 2005 and the
following two years. The new budget will have a surplus: revenue will exceed spending by 1 per cent of GDP, or
R187bn.
Kudrin said the funding for national defence will be increased again next year: nearly R520bn is earmarked for this
purpose, while social policy will get R154bn and education R101bn.
Kudrin also issued assurances that the 2005 budget includes all the funds necessary for the monetization of benefits
[recently coined phrase referring to plans to abolish concessions for pensioners and other categories and offset their
losses by increasing pensions and other welfare payments].
Furthermore, according to the Finance Ministry, the stabilization fund will exceed R500bn in 2005, and as soon as
this mark is reached, the funds can be used for other purposes, including offsetting a deficit in the pension fund,
which will form when the rate of single social tax is reduced starting next year.
Also today, the government will discuss the list of federal target programmes to be funded from the budget next
year.
[Radio Russia] |
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