Tajik-Russian summit achieves much, but leaves economic issues unresolved - view
The summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Emomali Rahmonov on 4 June was generally
quite successsful, says Tajik political analyst Rashid Abdullo. Writing in the Tajik newspaper Asia-Plus, Abdullo
welcomes the agreements reached by the two presidents on Russia's military presence in Tajikistan and the
settlement of Tajikistan's debt to Russia. However, at the same time he laments the lack of a breakthrough on trade
and econmic relations. In particular, he feels that Moscow may continue to use the threat of ending visa-free travel for
Tajik migrant workers as a way of exerting its influence over Dushanbe. The following is the text of Abdullo's
article entitled "A breakthrough in Sochi" and published by Tajik newspaper Asia-Plus on 10 June; subheadings
inserted editorially:
To the sound of the Black Sea's battering waves Emomali Rahmonov and Vladimir Putin have made mutual concessions
and resolved many issues of bilateral relations between Dushanbe and Moscow.
Tajikistan expected much from the Sochi meeting of President Emomali Rahmonov with President Vladimir Putin. Above
all, it expected to overcome the obvious disproportion between the military-political and economic components in
Tajik-Russian relations. Another key issue for our country was to preserve the possibility for migrant workers to enter
Russian unhindered and to ensure their legal status and personal security there.
Have these expectations been realised? Yes, they have, but not in full. For, the positive result of the meeting is
not the elimination of the disproportion or the resolution of labour migration from Tajikistan (the agreement is yet to
be signed), but first of the all the definition of new terms of military cooperation between the two countries. To the
sound of the Black Sea's waves the two presidents made fundamental decisions on the Russian military base [in
Tajikistan], the period that Russian border guards are to remain in Tajikistan and the Okno space monitoring centre.
Tajikistan settles debt to Russia
The elimination of the 300m-dollar debt to Russia may be deemed the most important result for Tajikistan. It was
resolved that 250m dollars of this sum will be settled by transferring the Okno centre's ownership to Russia.
Tajikistan will return the remaining 50m dollars to Moscow in the form shares in its energy facilities, in which the
Russian side demonstrated interest.
Tajikistan needs Russian military presence
The foundation of Russian-Tajik military agreements is the mutual interest of the sides in the Russian military
presence in Tajikistan. For the Tajik side, this is due to the fact that external threats to the country may come from a
whole variety of directions. Given the country's scarce military and economic resources for their neutralization,
the Russian military presence is an important factor in deterring possible hostile actions from abroad. In addition, the
Russian military presence makes its contribution to solving the very important problem for Tajikistan of social tension.
Our citizens make up a considerable part of the manpower of the 201st Motorized-Rifle Division and the border troops,
and many Tajik civilians are provided with jobs by various structures of the Russian armed forces in Tajikistan.
No economic breakthrough
But the Russian military-political presence in Tajikistan will not be effective and durable unless it is supplemented
by the development of mutually-beneficial economic cooperation, above all by developing the country's production
potential. Regrettably, a breakthrough has not been achieved in the development of precisely this component of
Tajik-Russian cooperation. However, an official confirmation by Putin of Russia's intention to develop economic
relations with Tajikistan allows us to hope that progress will eventually be made on the issue.
Problem of migrants Russia's "trump card"
As for the problem of labour migrants, in the light of the Sochi decisions one may say, at least for the short term,
that the issue of introducing entry visas for Tajik people, about which such a fuss was made ahead of the summit by the
Russian media and even by various Russian state structures, has become less topical. One may also anticipate that
pressure on our labour migrants will be reduced to some extent and absurd accusations against all Tajiks that they pose
the greatest threat to Russia's security will become less frequent.
On the other hand, the "suspended" state of this problem and the apparent dependence of social and, hence,
political stability in the country on the opportunities for Tajik labour migrants to work in Russia (according to
estimates of professor H. Umarov they earned 1.2bn dollars, or several annual budgets, for the country in 2003) will
remain an important means for Russia to secure its own interests in Tajikistan. It is no secret that the Russian side
has had a trump card in relations with our country, including the military agreements that the countries reached in
Sochi, by raising through the media, the State Duma and various officials the prospect of introducing a visa regime and
deporting Tajik migrants.
Summary of summit's results
Thus, the results of the Sochi summit may be regarded as quite positive. Tajikistan, Russia and the world community,
which were concerned about the possibility of the withdrawal of the Russian border troops, are now satisfied with its
results.
Tajikistan has finally got rid of its debt to Russia and thus strengthened its position in its dialogue with
international financial institutions. Apart from this, it has managed to insist on its gradually taking control of the
Afghan border. Russia has managed to retain its military presence in the region, which it needs badly. The international
community is satisfied that the border [control] with Afghanistan will not be weakened in the near future.
And we, ordinary Tajiks, are pleased with the mere fact that we still can go to work in Russia without obstacles.
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