05 June 2004 21:21
Kremlin said to back One Russia MP for Chechen presidency - paper
The Kremlin's candidate for the Chechen presidency is likely to be the One Russia State Duma MP, Ruslan
Yamadayev, says an article in Russian liberal newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to the article, Yamadayev is the
only man who "meets the Kremlin's requirements", and is likely to be acceptable to Ramzan Kadyrov, the
son of the recently assassinated Moscow-backed president, Akhmat Kadyrov. However, as the article points out, Yamadayev
is unlikely to enjoy the same kind of power as Kadyrov Senior. Ramzan Kadyrov "will retain considerable
powers", it thinks. This could allow Moscow to adopt a policy of divide and rule in Chechnya, the article
concludes. The following is the text of the article published by Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 2 June. Subheading added
editorially:
Only a man who wins the support of the Kremlin - and Ramzan Kadyrov - can become president of Chechnya today.
Experience of elections in the Chechen Republic shows that the Kremlin can get any result that it plans for itself
there. However, it is not so much a question of who will win as of ensuring stability in the republic once they have
won.
The presidential contender must be accepted by the Kadyrov clan, first and foremost Ramzan, without fail. This man
will concentrate a sizeable force in his hands, which will not only be numerically superior to the separatists but also
capable, if conditions are unfavourable, of destabilizing the situation in Chechnya. If a conflict arises between the
president and the Kadyrov clan, you can forget stability in Chechnya - if not forever, then for a long time to come.
Another essential quality for a contender is that he should be a fairly tough person, capable of any strong-arm moves
that the situation requires. There are very few people with these qualities among the contenders who have announced that
they may stand for this post at various points in time. Remember Aslambek Aslakhanov [aide to Putin] and Malik
Saydullayev [Moscow-based businessman].
Moscow has already put pressure on Aslakhanov once and he refused to take this post and has also refused to do so
now. Saydullayev, who tried unsuccessfully last time to overcome opposition from Moscow, has made no statements this
time [Saydullayev has since announced his candidacy]. They are fairly popular people in Chechnya, who are concerned
about the future of the country and could be effective presidents. However, neither man has Moscow's confidence.
What is more, they are unlikely to succeed in working well with Ramzan Kadyrov, whom they are constantly
criticizing.
There is another person in Chechnya, whom Moscow trusts unconditionally, namely, Beslan Gantamirov [former minister
in Chechen government and former mayor of Groznyy]. But he has been in conflict with the Kadyrov clan for a long time
and is precisely the man whom Ramzan would not want to see as Chechen president. Gantamirov's election would
probably mean the 5,000 armed Chechens who have currently sworn loyalty to Ramzan to all intents and purposes escape
control.
Divide and rule
That is why all these contenders would hardly be backed by Moscow. There is just one man in Chechnya today who meets
the Kremlin's requirements - Ruslan Yamadayev, the former field commander, who fought Russia during the first
Chechen war. In 1999 he joined with Kadyrov in defecting to Moscow's side because he did not want Wahhabite rule in
his republic. Since then, dubbed a traitor by [rebel leader Aslan] Maskhadov, he has served Russia loyally. That is why
he found himself on the One Russia list and became a State Duma deputy. In this respect, Moscow's trust in
Yamadayev is assured. And what is more he has no chance of escaping his orientation to Moscow, since in any other
country he is in effect condemned to defeat and ruin. What is more, as a former militant, he is capable of taking the
toughest decisions, acting rapidly, and swiftly trying to achieve his objectives. Lastly, he belongs to the Benoy clan,
the same as Ramzan Kadyrov. Their clan relationship may enable them to find common ground.
On the other hand, Ramzan, who is currently in control of all the siloviki [security forces] in Chechnya and in this
respect is the real boss in the republic is unlikely to want to see an independent as president who could take decisions
without any consideration for him. In all probability, Kadyrov Junior would like to see in this post someone who is
completely dependent on him and who is his protege. However, Moscow is unlikely to agree to that solution. Because the
gunmen's hunt for Ramzan may be as successful as for his father and in that case the Kremlin may find itself
without a strong man to count on in Chechnya.
That is why what is beneficial for Moscow is not a Kadyrov protege but someone who has a will of their own. And in
this respect Moscow must reach agreement between Ramzan Kadyrov and its protege, theoretically speaking, Yamadayev. Its
efforts are made easier by the fact that a large number of Chechen elders have backed Yamadayev and thousands and
thousands of signatures are currently being collected asking Yamadayev to run for president. This has also been
announced by the Chechen regional branch of One Russia. Clearly, that initiative was cleared with the Kremlin and we can
be sure that Yamadayev either has a promise from the Kremlin or the Kremlin has asked this man to take on this
mission.
In this case, talks with Ramzan are made easy as there is pressure from a large number of people in favour of
Yamadayev. On the other hand, Ramzan may have suspicions regarding the Kremlin protege's ambitions. Ramzan will
hardly want the new president of Chechnya to be as all-powerful as his father. This means that in all probability
Kadyrov Senior's powers will be distributed among various functionaries and here Yamadayev's role may be
significant. But he will not hold full power either. Ramzan Kadyrov will retain considerable powers. This could be a
good option for Moscow although there is the danger of conflict between the two Chechen leaders. One has to acknowledge
the relevance in this case of the tried and tested Roman mechanism of divide and rule. Moscow will be able to shift the
centre of gravity from one leader to another as it seeks greater obedience and loyalty from them.
[Nezavisimaya Gazeta] |
RUSSIA IN FACTS
