05 June 2004 14:47
Less than half of today`s 16-year-old Russian males will live to 60
Russia's population is shrinking by over half a million a year and could drop to 100m within 50 years, a
national newspaper reported. The birth rate is declining, as it is elsewhere, but a particular feature of Russian
demography is male mortality. Less than half of today's crop of 16-year-olds will live to 60, the newspaper wrote.
The following is the text of a report by Russian weekly Argumenty i Fakty on 1 June, with subheadings as published:
Minus
Russia's demographic situation gives no cause for optimism. Natural wastage between 1992 and 2002 has reduced
our number by 8.7m. This drop in population has in part been compensated for by migration, but the Russian population is
shrinking by about 600,000 to 800,000 a year. By 2016 we will number 134.3m, which is 9.7m down on the most recent
census.
A range of issues impacts on this: the birth rate will fall and the death rate rise, and migration will not make good
the shortfall. According to scientific forecasts, Russia's population will continue to decline during the first
five decades of the 21st century, in the worst-case scenario falling to 100m.
A declining birth rate is a global problem. Virtually all the world's developed countries saw lower birth rates
in the final decade of the 20th century. But unlike Russia, many of them have also seen a drop in the mortality rate. In
Austria it fell by 1.4 per 1,000 population, in the UK by 1.1, in Germany by nearly 1.5. Our birth rate fell by 3.6 per
1,000 population, while in the same period mortality rose by 5.1.
A relatively high birth rate is a feature of some parts of Russia. The nationwide average is 9.8 per 1,000
population, while in Dagestan it is 18.8, in Ingushetia 16.1, in Tyva 18.4, and in the Nenets Autonomous Area 13.1. In
Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Udmurtia it is slightly above the average.
But Russian society is generally orientated towards the single-child family. More than half of all families comprise
just one child. In addition, according to expert forecasts, from 15 to 17 per cent of all married couples are childless.
To avoid depopulation, Russian families should ideally have three children. But who is going to go that far if, as the
State Statistics Committee reports, over 60 per cent of people in employment are on wages that are below the poverty
threshold for themselves and one child? Child benefit, at R70 a month, is just 3 per cent of the
"children's" poverty threshold.
However, low living standards are not the sole deciding factor. Historical experience shows that the introduction of
high levels of child benefit only has a short-term impact on the birth rate. After that the situation returns to its
previous state, unless other related factors come into play. Incidentally, a slight increase in the birth rate since
2000 was due not only to a degree of stability in society but also to a larger number of women of childbearing age.
Oh, you men ...
In 2002, there were 16.3 deaths per 1,000 population. This is the highest mortality rate in Europe. And it had gone
up by 20 per cent in the preceding four years. Almost one in three deaths was of a person of working age. This is two to
four times higher than in developed countries. And our men of working age are four times more likely to die than their
female counterparts. Excessive male mortality is a specific feature of Russia. The main risk group is men between 20 and
45. If the current trend continues, then of Russian males attaining 16 years in 2004 less than half will live to 60.
According to forecasts, today's 25-year-old men have a life expectancy equal to or even less than their
counterparts of the late 19th century. The most common causes of death are alcoholism, drug addiction, smoking and
traffic accidents.
According to WHO figures, the health of a population is determined 50 per cent by socioeconomic factors, 20 per cent
by genetics, 20 per cent by the environment and 10 per cent by the strength of the given country's healthcare
system.
Across Russia, about 40 per cent of children are born ill. Each new generation is less healthy than the preceding
generation. The result is a "social crater", in which health problems pass from the older generation to the
younger.
One can safely say that "doubling" GDP is not sufficient to radically improve our people's health and
life expectancy. And we should not be deceived by a rise in average incomes, for they do not necessarily rise equally
for all groups of the population. On the contrary, society is becoming more polarized. As ill mothers bring forth ill
babies, poor families reproduce poverty.
[Argumenty i Fakty] |
RUSSIA IN FACTS
