31 May 2004 12:43
MINISTRY FORECASTS H1 GDP GROWTH OF 7.5%
MOSCOW. May 31 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry forecasts year-on-year GDP growth of
7.5% in the first half of 2004.
GDP grew 8% year-on-year in January-April and 7.8% in April alone, the ministry said in its latest socioeconomic
review. Industrial output increased 7.4% in the four months. GDP and industrial output are targeted to rise 6.6% and
6.3% respectively in 2004 as a whole, compared with growth of 7.3% and 7% in 2003.
The ministry said it expected "lower economic growth rates in the
second half of 2004 due mainly to the base effect and the higher
In January-April, average monthly GDP growth was 0.4% adjusted for the seasonal factor and number of calendar days,
compared with 0.6% a year previously. GDP growth on this basis was 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, however
growth accelerated to 0.6% in April.
"High rates of economic growth are based both on the continuing expansion of domestic demand with a noticeable
reduction in imports compared with the same period of last year, and on the continuing consumer boom," the ministry
said.
The ministry said visible exports grew 23.2% in value and imports grew 20.9% in the four months. Real disposable
incomes went up 11.5% and retail turnover increased 10.7%. "Retail trade was characterized by a sustained positive
rate year-on-year in January-April even adjusted for seasonal factors," the ministry said.
trajectory of growth for indicators in the second half of 2003."
[Interfax] |
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