Under an optimistic scenario, he said, the GDP would grow 5.9 percent in 2005, 6 percent – in 2006 and 6.1 percent – in 2007. Under a more conservative scenario, based on the oil price of $20 per barrel, the Russian economy would grow 5 percent in 2005, 4.8 percent – in 2006, and 4.8 percent – in 2007. According to Mr. Klepach, the effectiveness of the economy will increase.

He said investment in Russia was expected to rise 10.4 percent in 2004, retail trade – 8.9 percent, and paid consumer services – 5.6 percent. Under a more conservative scenario, manufacturing growth in 2004 is projected to be 6.3 percent, 5.8 percent – in 2006 and 5.7 percent – in 2007. A slowdown in manufacturing growth will be largely due to lower oil production and growing competition. Retail trade is expected to rise by 8 percent in 2005.

Mr. Klepach stressed that an annual growth of 6 percent was not enough to double the GDP by 2010. In his opinion, under the circumstances, Russia is unlikely to achieve this goal.

“We do not have a planned economy. Potentially, we can grow faster, but we need not only directions from above: much depends on the performance of Russian companies,” the official said. “We need time and serious decisions, as well as an appropriate strategy for oil industries,” he added.

In Mr. Klepach’s opinion, if business and the government offer a new strategy, these plans will be more realistic.