The PRC is demanding that Russia sell it the latest generation of military technology. This not only contradicts the strategic interests of Russia’s defense industry, but it could also create a threat to national security.

Alexei Khazbiev

At a late April meeting in Beijing with Russian defense minister Sergei Ivanov, the chairman of China’s State Council Weng Jiabao announced that “the practice of acquiring finished military hardware from Russia has run its course and now the time has come to find new forms of cooperation.” The Chinese Minister of Defense Cao Gangchuan proposed removing all limits on military hardware supply and giving Chinese specialists access to top-secret Russian military know-how.
At present, Russia’s Ministry of Defense views China as a likely military opponent, and for this reason prohibits sales of certain kinds of Russian military technology to the PRC. However the Chinese were never bothered by this fact before, as Russians approached trade with China over the last ten years along the lines of “take what you’re given.” The Chinese did precisely that, and in great quantities. The People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) consistently bought $1.5-2 billion in weapons from Russian every year. Russia’s share of Chinese weaponry imports reached 90%. Clearly, the Chinese have changed their tune. But why?

Beyond the Great Wall

Only a year and a half ago, Chinese General Secretary Hu Jindao announced that in twenty years, China intends to make its army one of the most powerful and advanced armies in the world. In that period of time, the Chinese are supposed to create a broad range of military hardware with specifications superceding all currently existing analogous weaponry. Yet the Chinese military-industrial complex failed miserably at last task handed down by the Communist Party, to copy the last generation in Russian and American military hardware.
For example, in the early 1980s the Chinese put all their efforts into creating their own version of the American F-16 fighter. In late 2002, or twenty years after the start of the program, they began small-scale manufacture of their clone, the J-10. Of course, in terms of its specifications, the plane is closer to the third generation of fighters than the forth.
The Chinese fared no better in their attempts to clone anti-aircraft systems. After buying at least twelve divisions of S-300 long-range missiles, China tried to create a clone of this system, the FT-2000. Currently, there is only one in existence. Externally it looks a lot like the well-known Russian long-range missile system. However, in contrast to the S-300, the Chinese system cannot hit rapidly moving targets. This means that it is completely ineffective against fighter planes and cruise missiles.
The best example of military hardware cloning in China involved Soviet aircraft carriers. Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, China bought three aircraft carriers from Russia and Ukraine, the Minsk, the Kiev, and the Variag, which the Soviet navy had decommissioned. The Chinese program to create China’s own aircraft carrier began in 1993, but China did not succeed in building an aircraft carrier. Now the Minsk has been converted into the floating amusement park, Minsk World, while the Kiev and Variag are being turned into a five-star hotel and a casino.
The Chinese defense industry is not ready at present to recreate foreign technology. For this reason, Chinese military contractors’ only chance to carry out the new party task is to acquire cutting-edge technology from Russia and attract Russian specialists to develop up-to-date weaponry systems. In other words, they want to start their own engineering tradition at Russia’s expense.

Whose army is better?

It’s no exaggeration to call Beijing’s new technological demands over the top. The PLA is currently buying the latest modifications to 4G Su-30MKK fighters. These planes are rightfully considered some of the best in the world. Even the Russian military does not have them. Due to a lack of funds, the Russian Air Force was forced to make due with updated, less than perfect Su-27s. Nonetheless, China is demanding that Bars radars with phased array antenna and active homing head air-to-air missiles be installed in Su-30MKKs. At the same time, the Chinese are negotiating with Russia to obtain a new series of planes and the technology to produce both radars and missiles, as well as production licenses to manufacture the AL-31F engines used in Su-30s.
The Chinese have even an even greater interest in naval weaponry. Before the collapse of the USSR, plans were made to build a 956U-type gas turbine-powered destroyer. This ship was supposed become the main striking force of the Soviet Navy in the mid-ocean zone. But again due to a lack of money, the prototype was never put into production. Now the PLA is proposing to finance the construction of a head destroyer, but under the condition that Russia hands over not only the ship itself, but also all the documentation related to it. The PRC would also like to be a co-investor on a project to create floating nuclear power plants using Russian KLT-40S reactors. Finally, the PRC has plans to attract Russia as the main engineer and planner of a heavy aircraft carrier that they hope to launch in the next two to three years.
At present, China’s military might is already completely comparable to Russia’s. Without taking into account atomic weapons, China has surpassed Russia militarily. In military operations that do not use atomic weapons, the scales would very likely tip to the Chinese side. What price are the Chinese willing to pay to make their army more powerful than Russia’s at Russian expense?

Two birds, one stone

Konstanin Makienko, Deputy Director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, believes that giving China the latest weaponry and technology would bring Russia at least $10 billion. “We could hand over our missile building technology in return for an order of 150 Su-30MKK fighters for a grand total of $7-8 billion,” Makienko states. “If Russian collaborates with the PRC to build a Chinese aircraft carrier, we should ask China to buy at least four warships costing $3.5-4 billion.” Income from motor and radar licensing could bring another $2 billion into the state coffers.
To all appearances, the Chinese think that even $10 billion is excessive. The PRC’s leaders are not currently giving any concrete numbers, hoping to have the embargo imposed by the EU after Tiananmen Square in 1989 lifted this fall. China’s calculations are simple. If the embargo is lifted, they won’t have to pay Russia such a high price. But that is just the beginning.
China has no desire to recognize Russia’s current borders. The Chinese authorities are demanding Russia “declare all the treaties concluded between imperial Russia and the Qing Dynasty unequal.” In 1989, Deng Xiaoping announced that “Russia used these treaties to grab more than one and half million square kilometers of Chinese territory and now the time has come to pay.” The Chinese have in mind the entire Maritime Territory, Tuva, Sakhalin, and areas north of the Amur River, including Vladivostok and Khabarovsk. Deng Xiaoping’s statements were never disavowed, and they continue to play an important role in local politics. Since 1949 Chinese schoolchildren have be taught to believe that Russia is “in historical territorial debt to China.” For example, a recently published Chinese secondary school textbook states directly that “during the Second Opium War provoked by the British and French, tsarist Russia delighted in another’s woe, robbing the house while it burned.”

The choice is ours

Moscow has yet to decide whether it’s worth it to move toward a radically closer relationship with the PRC.
The Europeans seem much more logical. In the last year and a half, the European authorities have discussed the issue of lifting the embargo on supplying weapons to China twice. Both times, the Europeans voted in the absolute majority to maintain the embargo on China. Thus, the EU, to all present appearances, will not reverse the embargo any time soon. Moreover, American Secretary of State Colin Powell warned his European colleagues that if they vote to lift the embargo, the US will introduce sanctions against European defense companies.
The benefits of Gangchuan’s plan are far from obvious, even for the Russian defense industry. In recent years, Russia’s defense companies and state trading intermediary Rosoboronexport have been able to diversify their orders thanks to contracts with India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. For example, according to last year’s results, India became a major buyer of Russian weaponry, purchasing 42% of the total supply, while China only purchased 38%. Of course, if China were to pay Russia $10 billion for new technology, this would allow Russia to finance a few promising aviation and missile projects, but not all. Once Russia sells China the latest technology, however, this will put an end to the future Chinese market for Russian military hardware.
Thus, wouldn’t it be better to just sell China the weapons that the Russian army uses? China has nowhere else to go, as no one else will sell them military technology.

More in Russian>> www.expert.ru