Leading Article: To Kyoto, via Moscow
Seven years ago, just weeks after coming to power, Tony Blair surprised the world by vigorously taking up the cause
of global warming. The setting was the most prominent imaginable, the G8 summit of the world's most powerful
leaders in Denver, immediately followed by another summit at the United Nations in New York. Britain - in the
substantial person of John Prescott, but with Blair making key phone calls behind the scenes - successfully brokered the
Kyoto Protocol later that year and has remained prominent in attempts to bring it into force.
For months now, the Prime Minister has been promising to bring climate change - which he described last month as
"the most important issue that we face as a global community" - back to the top of the international agenda.
Again, he is planning to use a big opportunity; next year he will hold the chairmanship of the G8 and the presidency of
the EU. And Friday's surprise announcement by President Putin that Russia will "rapidly move" towards
ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, vastly increasing the chances of it coming into force, has given him his cue.
But will he take it? Much will depend on how he handles the United States, which he is rightly anxious to bring back
into some relation with the real world. The US Congress is increasingly sympathetic to taking action, so if John Kerry
is president by next year there would be no problem. The senator is firmly committed on the issue, much more reliably so
than the somewhat hypocritical Al Gore. If George Bush is re-elected, it will be a lot tougher - but he is coming under
increased pressure even from industry and fellow Republicans. The question, as ever, is whether Mr Blair will stand up
to Mr Bush and challenge him to act, or whether he will seek to appease him.
Cynics say that this is just window dressing, another attempt by Mr Blair to divert attention from Iraq. We do not
believe that to be true. But there are two clear tests. One is whether the Prime Minister will drive forward last
year's White Paper, which commits Britain sharply to reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and increasing the use of
renewable energy. The second and more immediate test is whether he will accept Gerhard Schroder's invitation to a
summit on renewable energy in Bonn early next month. If the Prime Minister is serious about achieving something next
year, he will need the German Chancellor's support. If he snubs him now, he will not get it.
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RUSSIA IN FACTS
