18 May 2004 20:18
Paper urges Kremlin to use Kadyrov death to broaden power base in Chechnya
The assassination of pro-Moscow Chechen President Akhmat Kadyrov on 9 May provides an opportunity to make the
leadership of the republic more broadly based, according to an article on the Russian Strana.Ru web site. The federal
authorities should hold parliamentary and presidential elections simultaneously, which will be more cost effective and
introduce greater stability. The Kremlin should also make sure that voters have a wider choice of candidates than at the
previous presidential election in October 2003, the article says. The following is the text of the article by Vremya
Novostey correspondent Ivan Sukhov published on the Russian Strana.Ru web site on 14 May; subheading inserted
editorially:
The death of [pro-Moscow] President Akhmat Kadyrov of Chechnya evoked hysterical reactions from the Russian community
of experts. Observers started making clearly confused statements, either proposing the "de-Chechenization of
Chechnya and the amplification of the Chechen problem to cover the entire North Caucasus" or suggesting that the
Constitution - and it was not clear whether they were referring to the Chechen or Russian constitution - was
"merely a piece of paper on which some letters had been printed". Even in the midst of this cacophony,
however, some sensible voices could be heard, arguing that the event should not be treated as a disaster.
In fact, the murder of the Chechen president does not mean that the Kremlin chose the wrong method of regulation or
that the common policy line should be discarded without delay and replaced with a tougher line, which would imply that
all Russian policy in the Caucasus is certain to fail. The tragedy of 9 May, however, did shed some light on major
problems in the current political structure of Chechnya. The new election, which the Kremlin apparently agreed to
schedule on the day of the tragedy, might offer a good opportunity to correct these problems.
The first of the most evident problems is the unreliability of a political system built around a single, essentially
irreplaceable individual - as Akhmat Kadyrov was in Chechnya. As soon as this individual ceased to exist, the whole
system became precarious. The remaining top leaders, including Sergey Abramov, the head of the government, Taus
Dzhabrailov, the State Council leader, and Ramzan Kadyrov, who unexpectedly became deputy prime minister, are in a state
of obvious confusion and are losing control of the existing mechanisms of governmental authority. To avoid this kind of
situation in the future, the work of forming a fully operational system of government agencies, including a parliament,
must be completed, at the very least. "The presidential election must be combined with a parliamentary election, to
make the system of government stronger," said Abdul-Khakim Sultygov, the Russian president's former special
representative in Chechnya. "This is a matter of counterterrorist strategy, and not just a political
necessity."
Need for effective parliament
The Chechen constitution does not specify how soon the parliamentary election must be held, and that is why Akhmat
Kadyrov (probably with the consent of the federal centre) succeeded in delaying the election for such a long time,
content with the imitation of representative governmental authority represented by the State Council. The State Council
is not a proper substitute for a parliament, however. It now consists only of district leaders (appointed by Kadyrov)
and district representatives delegated by those leaders (in line with Kadyrov's recommendations). This kind of body
essentially cannot make any decisions. The republic cannot even sign the long-awaited federation treaty with the centre
until it has a normal legislative assembly. There is no reason that an early presidential election cannot be combined
with a parliamentary election now, and some Chechen politicians, particularly Aslambek Aslakhanov, the president's
adviser on Chechnya, are already expressing their support for this plan.
The existence of an effective parliament, which could, according to political scientist Sergey Markov, include small
groups representing the point of view of the "other side" (i.e., the resistance fighters), would strengthen
the public's confidence in the government. In this case, it would no longer consist only of a single "Kremlin
protege", but would be made up of a whole group of representatives of the public. Abdul-Khakim Sultygov believes
that the members of parliament could serve as a collective guarantor of the safety of surrendering rebels in addition to
performing their other duties. This would also strengthen the existing system: Until 9 May, Kadyrov was the sole
guarantor of their safety, and dozens of rebels were ready to retreat to the mountains when he died. Collective
leadership is always stronger and more reliable than a single leader, to whom anything might happen at any time in a
place like Chechnya. In this case, it is not that important to decide whether priorities will have to be reordered and
whether the present presidential republic will have to be reorganized as a parliamentary republic in Chechnya. The only
thing that has to be done now is to back the president up with a parliament. Besides, holding both elections on the same
day will cost the federal budget only half as much.
Another objective method of making the Chechen government more reliable would entail the institution of a
vice-president, who could be an ex officio military commander and could easily assume responsibility for the situation
in the event of an emergency, such as the tragedy of 9 May, until the election. There is an obvious need for this
individual in Chechnya today, and his absence will be even more noticeable in the coming four months. Of course, this
provision cannot be added to the Chechen constitution until a parliament has been elected.
Whereas the combined elections are still in question, the presidential election campaign has virtually started
already. After spending a few days in mourning, leading Chechen politicians began making inconspicuous preparations for
a new campaign, and experts are awaiting the appearance of new and unexpected candidates on the political horizon. All
of the members of the "Kadyrov team" are in Moscow now, trying to convince the Kremlin administration to put
its money on the candidate of their choice. Other lobbyists - including representatives of the Chechen business
community and the Russian military and law enforcement agencies - are also busy at work, knowing that the final decision
will be made in the Kremlin again, and not in the election precincts. This is unavoidable under present conditions, but
we would like to hope that the grave errors that were made in December [as received, the last presidential election was
held in October 2003] will not be repeated in this election campaign. The group of candidates must give voters a broad
range of choices, and if the federal government supports one of them, it must take care not to resemble an inexorable
steamroller, crushing the hopes of voters seeking other alternatives. If the Chechens doubt the election results again,
the next president might be in for a political career as brief and as tragic as Akhmat Kadyrov's.
[Strana.Ru web site] |
RUSSIA IN FACTS
