12 May 2004 11:05 The dollar exchange rate fluctuates madly; The bond market continues to fall April 28 - The Kalina perfume and cosmetics concern successfully placed its stock on the MICEX - Vice-Premier Alexander Zhukov charged the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade with arranging the transfer of ownership of the Sayano-Shushensky Hydroelectric Plant to the federal government. The next day, RAO EES shares lost 9.9%. - The Moscow City Telephone Network (MGTS) placed 1.5 billion rubles in bonds. April 29 - Rumors circulated that Vladimir Potanin might be arrested. Norilsk Nickel stock lost 9.8%. The fall in prices stopped only when Interros and the Prosecutor General denied the rumors. - The government moved to suspend the decision of the Republic of Khakassia Arbitration Court regarding the de-privatization of the Sayano-Shushensky Hydroelectric Plant. - The Magnitogorsk Metal Works announced good results for 2003 according to international accounting standards. - Megafon announced its preliminary results for the first quarter of 2004 according to international standards. May 5 - Alexei Kudrin stated his opinion on the YUKOS Affair. YUKOS stock prices fell 6.8%. May 7 - President Vladimir Putin was inaugurated.
For the last two weeks, the currency market has been abuzz with activity. As the long May holidays approached during the final days of April, market players became extremely active. When a serious ruble deficit arose (by April 29th correspondent accounts had fallen to 149 billion rubles and the short-term IBC rate skyrocketed to more than 20%, its highest level since September 2003), the dollar exchange rate fell by 8 kopecks in two days to 28.87 rubles to the dollar. The moment the money market improved, market players renewed their attacks on the ruble. However, the stronger dollar was short-lived. Following international currency markets, the dollar again fell to 28.87 rubles to the dollar. A bear mood continued to predominate on the federal ruble bond market. A lack of rubles cancelled out the minor positive effect of a stronger ruble and as a result, prices on GKO-OFZ bonds fell slightly during light trading. Over the last two weeks, the weighted average yield on federal bonds grew by 35 base points. Quotes may continue to fall after the May holidays. The corporate and sub-federal bond market also fell victim to the general downward trend. Prices for corporate bonds fell by an average of 0.4%. Top-tier bonds fared even worse, losing 0.9%. Moscow Province’s April 27th bond placement was the big event on the market these past two weeks. A record amount of 9.6 billion rubles in bonds were placed at 11.3% p.a. yield. News about US monetary policy set the tone for the Russian eurobond market. Positive macroeconomic news and an expected rise in interest rates meant growth for US Treasuries, which Russian eurobonds follow very closely. In two weeks, the yield on the indicator Euro-30 issue grew by 48 base points and the Russian segment’s spread increased by 43 points. Over the last two weeks, the RTS continued its downward path, losing another 6.9%. Bad news did not inspire hope in investors. In early May, the stock market took a breather. After the May 1st holidays, the RTS Index stabilized around 631-636 points. By the end of the first week of May, YUKOS shares had lost 12% and Sibneft 2.8%. LUKoil, unaffected by political risks, performed the best, gaining 7.1%. Norilsk Nickel gained 6.6% after rumors of the impending arrest of its director were laid to rest.
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