26 April 2004 10:36 The ruble returns to January levels; Collapse on the stock market April 15 - YUKOS announced that oil reserves increased in 2003. The company’s stock gained 2.3%. April 16 - The Tax Ministry got courts to ban all sales of YUKOS stock. YUKOS shares lost 0.8%. - LUKoil announced its recommended dividend payments for 2003. The company’s stock lost 3.4%. April 19 - The Federal Financial Markets Service approved an additional issue of 3.5 million shares of OMZ after its merger with Power Machines (Silovyi Mashiny). - Sibneft announced that production increased for February 2004. Its stock gained 0.4%. April 20 - S&P lowered YUKOS’ rating five grades (from BB- to CCC) and Sibneft’s rathing from B to B-. YUKOS shares plummeted, losing 4.6%. - Gazprom bought 5% of Mosenergo stock from the Moscow municipal government. Gazprom stock gained 2%. - LUKoil announced increased oil and natural gas reserves. The company’s stock gained 0.8%. April 21 - The government rejected the idea to divide united generating company (OGK) stock proportionally. EES Rossiya’s stock fell by 5.2%. - The state’s stake in LUKoil will be sold on the Russian market, possibly this year. The company’s stock lost 4.6%. - Auctions to make additional placements of 13 billion rubles in OFZ bonds were declared a failure.
Over the last week, the ruble lost 30 kopecks, despite reduced liquidity in the banking system (the IBC rate rose to 4.7% p.a., while correspondent accounts fell to 165 billion rubles). In the dollar’s favor were the expected rise in US interest rates and the dollar’s improved performance versus a basket of currencies on world exchanges. Trading was heavy and very volatile, as exchange rates fluctuated by as much as 12 kopecks in one day. The bull mood was also encouraged by oil prices, which fell last week by 3.2%. The results of this week’s trading on the futures market demonstrate that investors expect the dollar to continue to rise. May futures were trading at 28.95-29 rubles to the dollar. Selling continued on the federal ruble bond market. The main catalyst was a decline in the ruble exchange rate and unfavorable conditions on foreign debt markets. On Wednesday investors were fixated on the primary market. Naturally, the Finance Ministry was not able to offer a yield premium, and the auctions failed, which only encouraged investor pessimism. Yields on long issues gained 0.3-0.6% for the week. On the sub-federal and corporate market, expected major initial placements planned for late April led to falling prices. Moscow municipal 29th and 38th series bonds lost 1.5%. The MICEX Corporate Bond Index lost 0.7% for the week. The week on the foreign debt securities market began with growth due to adjustments on the US Treasuries market. By Tuesday, however, the American market headed downward thanks to the Fed’s recent announcements. The next day, Alan Greenspan went about reassuring investors. The Russian segment reacted with a small time lag. For this reason, when base assets began to grow, Russian eurobonds were still falling. As a result, the spread of the Russian segment increased to 265 base points. The RTS Index lost 5.5% and, for the first time in the last month, closed below 700. The decline began with YUKOS and Sibneft, which lost 5.2% and 3% respectively for the week. On Wednesday, sales dragged down the entire spectrum of liquid stocks, as the RTS lost 2.9% in a single day. After Minister of Industry and Energy Viktor Khristenko announced the structure of united generating company auctions, EES shares led the way down, losing 6.3% for the week.
The Financier’s Date Book
April 27 Gazprom board of directors meets April 28 MGTS and Tatfondbank place 1.5 and 1 billion rubles in bonds respectively April 29 Inteko and Sibirtelekom place 3 and 2 billion rubles in bonds respectively April 30 Avangard Bank places 1 billion rubles in bonds
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