25 April 2004 15:51
Kyoto supporters take upper hand in Russian administration - newspaper
If EU countries show a commitment to buying Russian emission quotas, Moscow will not be long in ratifying the Kyoto
Protocol despite the arguments of opponents of Kyoto in the Russian administration, according to the Russian newspaper
Vedomosti. Chief among them is presidential economic adviser Andrey Illarionov, who predicts Russia will use up its
surplus emission quotas by 2007. The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, on the other hand, argues that Russia
will stay well within its quotas because its energy requirements are set to fall substantially by 2010, and a draft
government report has now concluded that ratification of the protocol will not threaten the country's economic
development. The following is the text of the article by Olga Proskurnina, published on 15 April under the headline
"Officials calculate benefit from trading in quotas":
The government is not following the lead of presidential adviser Andrey Illarionov, who is trying to persuade it that
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol is ruinous for the Russian economy. As Vedomosti has discovered, the Ministry for
Industry and Energy and the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade want to propose to the president that talks be
held with the European Union, Canada and Japan on transferring to them a portion of our emissions quotas for greenhouse
gases in exchange for investments.
A total of 120 countries have already signed the Kyoto Protocol, but only 32 have ratified it, and according to the
terms of the agreement it cannot enter into force without the signature of either Russia or the United States. The
protocol proposes a decrease in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Prior to the beginning of the 21st century it was believed that Russia would gain from the ratification of the
protocol: in the nineties our industry experienced a deep decline, therefore emissions of carbon dioxide also fell. And
so Russia found itself with the opportunity to sell its quotas for emissions of greenhouse gases to countries that had
increased their emissions of greenhouse gases since 1990. Theoretically, if they invest in Russian projects they have
the right to reduce their obligations in relation to cutting emissions.
At the start of his government president Vladimir Putin spoke out in support of the Kyoto agreements. But in
September 2003 at the World Climate Change Conference he announced that Russia would ratify this agreement proceeding on
the basis of national interests and only after exhaustive study of this question by the government. But last month Putin
instructed the Cabinet of Ministers and the Academy of Sciences to examine the question of whether or not it would be
expedient (for Russia) to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
A copy of the draft government report to the president has come into Vedomosti's possession (Minister for
Industry and Energy Viktor Khristenko is responsible for the preparation of this report). The document maintains that
the "Kyoto Protocol does not threaten the economic development" of Russia. A commercial reassignment of its
"emission quotas" could help Russia to attract investment to help it reduce its economy's energy
requirements, according to the draft. The authors of the document propose that the question of trading in quotas should
be discussed within the framework of the "Russia-EU" energy dialogue and also with Canada and Japan.
The government's proposals diverge from the opinion of presidential adviser Andrey Illarionov, who has
consistently opposed ratification of the Kyoto Protocol as a document that is harmful to economic growth. In a letter to
Putin dated 16 March (Vedomosti has a copy of the document) Illarionov writes that every percentage of GDP growth is
accompanied by a 2.0-2.3 per cent rise in emissions of carbon dioxide. Given average GDP growth rates of 8 per cent,
"corresponding to a doubling of GDP in the course of 10 years", Russia will exceed the level of CO2 emissions
set for it by the Kyoto Protocol in 2007. As a result the country will be compelled to purchase emissions quotas rather
than sell them, states the adviser. Therefore, Illarionov is convinced that the Kyoto Protocol must not be ratified.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has other calculations. Over the period 2008-2012, given annual GDP
growth of 8 per cent, the average level of greenhouse gas emissions will be 15 per cent less than the level set by the
protocol. In a letter addressed to Viktor Khristenko, the ministry's deputy head, Mukhammed Tsikanov, explains such
discrepancies in the assessments by saying that Illarionov does not take account of the fact that by 2010 the Russian
economy's energy requirements will have fallen by 26-28 per cent.
If the countries of the EU show real interest in purchasing emissions quotas from Russia, "its (the Kyoto
Protocol's) ratification will not be long in coming", reasons an official from the Ministry of Industry and
Energy on terms of anonymity. According to his information, the Netherlands and several other European countries are
already preparing such applications.
[Vedomosti] |
RUSSIA IN FACTS
