07 April 2004 03:44
Global cereal stocks to decline: FAO
Dharam Shourie New York, Apr 7 (PTI) Global cereal stocks will fall sharply again by the end of the 2003-2004 season
due to anticipated fall in production mainly in China followed by India, Russia and the European Union, the United
Nations food agency has warned. Closing inventories are expected to be down by 89 million metric tonnes or 18 per cent
from the opening levels, the Food and Agriculture (FAO) estimates. The anticipated sharp decline in cereal stocks from
the previous season would be mainly due to fall in production in China, although substantial reductions are also
anticipated in India, Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, FAO said. However, the report says world cereal production
in 2004 is forecast to increase to 2,130 million metric tonnes, some two percent up on last year and three percent above
the average of the past five years and that could help alleviate the tight global supply situation in the new 2004-2005
season. The bulk of the cereals increase is expected in wheat, although rice output is also seen to rise significantly.
By contrast, coarse grains production could decrease marginally. The report emphasises, however, that this first
forecast, especially for rice and coarse grains, is tentative and assumes normal weather conditions. "The increase
in global cereal output forecast for 2004 would come as a very welcome development for global food supply. The continued
tightening of global cereal supplies for four successive years since 1999-2000 has brought international cereal prices
under significant upward pressure in the past months," the report said.
Export prices for wheat, maize and rice all registered strong gains, reflecting tight market conditions. Because
early prospects for wheat crops are favourable, some easing of wheat prices could be anticipated as the harvest
approaches in the northern hemisphere in the coming months, FAO said.
But, the report says that export prices for coarse grains and rice are unlikely to recede any time soon based on
current supply and demand prospects.
World cereal utilisation in 2003-2004 is forecast at 1,971 million metric tonnes, up one percent from the previous
year, but still slightly below the 10- year trend.
The report anticipates an increase in food aid costs per unit in view of generally tighter world cereal supplies,
strong international prices and soaring ocean freight rates for 2003-2004. It notes that total food aid shipments during
this period "could decline slightly." (THROUGH ASIA PULSE)
[Press Trust of India] |
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