28 February 2004 12:48
Impending government changes debated in Russian TV discussion
Russian Channel One's "Basic Instinct" studio discussion on 27 February tackled the implications of
the decision by President Vladimir Putin to dismiss the government. The experts and politicians in the studio gave their
verdicts on the outgoing government of Mikhail Kasyanov, debated the role of a prime minister in Russia, speculated
about the sort of person who will take over from Kasyanov and tried to forecast what changes the new administration
would bring.
The participants were: Oleg Sysuyev, first deputy chairman of Alfa Bank, who had been responsible for social issues
in an earlier government; Yevgeniy Yasin, supervisor of studies at the Higher School of Economics state university and
former economics minister; Aleksandr Zhukov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma, who until recently headed the Duma
Budget Committee; Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politika Foundation; Gleb Pavlovskiy, president of the Effective
Policy Foundation; Gennadiy Zyuganov, head of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation faction in the State Duma;
and Literaturnaya Gazeta political observer Aleksandr Tsipko. Regular presenter Svetlana Sorokina coordinated
proceedings.
Commenting on the outgoing government, Tsipko felt that it had failed to carry out much-needed structural reforms in
industry, and that there had been too much of a gap between Putin's "declared policies" and the
government's "real policies". To Zyuganov, the problem was that in the past four years the government had
failed to open a single large new factory with its petrodollars, while child allowances had failed to go up, corruption
and crime were rife, many people were living on the poverty line, and bread prices were rising despite a reasonable
harvest last year.
Nikonov pointed out that the economy had been expanding rapidly, but not as fast as in Kazakhstan which was reaping
the rewards of its more radical reforms. Zhukov felt that the government had achieved "quite a lot" since the
economic doldrums of four years ago. Yasin expressed the view that the government had been dismissed not for economic
but for political reasons: Putin was availing himself of a "window of opportunity" to begin his second term
with a team already in place.
Sysuyev thought that outgoing prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov was "one of the most talented leaders", but
in the last year-and-a-half to two years no-one in the government had been willing to take necessary but unpopular
decisions.
Zhukov said he thought the government had become a "lame duck" in recent months: "It was failing to do
what the president expected of it, and what, objectively, it should have been doing.". He said it had been failing
on administrative reform, and a further three months of inaction would have been wrong. He also said Putin's
statement that the electorate should know who was in his team before the presidential poll should be taken seriously.
For foreign investors, Zhukov said, the identity of the prime minister was of vital importance.
Turning to the question of what qualities the new prime minister should have, Nikonov said he did not think Putin
would appoint himself as prime minister, although such a move would be consistent with the "logic of economic
breakthrough". Whoever the new prime minister was, he must be energetic and effective, and more of a political
figure than Kasyanov had been.
Zyuganov said the new prime minister must understand industry and science. Sysuyev said he expected a representative
of the "liberal economic school". According to Tsipko, the West needs a liberal, but Putin's electorate
wants someone "closer to them", perhaps an industrialist or a governor. Zhukov said that, whoever became prime
minister, he would have to fulfil the programme set out by Putin in his speech to supporters, in which he had made it
clear that Russia would not return to an "administrative command system", that demonopolization and the
development of the market economy would continue, and that administrative reform would be carried out.
Zyuganov said a "left-wing government" needed to be formed as in the Duma elections all the other parties
had stolen the Communists' ideas.
Pavlovskiy said there were three possibilities: the new prime minister could be Putin himself, or a temporary figure
- "Kasyanov No 2" - or a close associate of Putin's. Pavlovskiy thought there would be a new "social
policy course", but that the electorate by and large did not like radical ideas.
Nikonov said the government should reduce the regulation of business and curb corruption. Pavlovskiy described the
old government's policies as stemming from an "emergency period", and said new policies based on boosting
Russia's competitiveness were now needed. Zhukov predicted there would be a rationalization of the administrative
structure, and in the economy one could expect moves towards lower taxes and to "bring the state's economic
possibilities into line with the state's obligations".
Two polls were taken among the studio audience during the discussion. Asked at the beginning of the programme whether
they regarded the performance of the outgoing government as satisfactory or unsatisfactory, 51 per cent of the audience
said satisfactory and 49 per cent the opposite. Later in the programme, 34 per cent thought the new government would
change economic course, and 66 per cent that it wouldn't.
[Channel One TV] |
RUSSIA IN FACTS
