25 February 2004 01:31
Russian politicians, analysts debate Putin`s sacking of prime minister
Following President Vladimir Putin's "unexpected and sudden" announcement that he was dismissing Prime
Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and the entire Russian government, NTV's "Freedom of Speech" programme -
presented by Savik Shuster - devoted a special 82-minute, live edition to the events of 24 February. The programme,
which was subtitled "The president sacks his prime minister - intrigue of the election of 2004 or of 2008?",
tackled the basic question of what prompted Putin to take this decision and why Putin decided to sack the government at
this particular time.
Shuster's studio guests - who were not introduced all at once at the start of the programme, but only when they
were individually invited to speak later on - included the president of the Public Opinion Foundation, Gleb Pavlovskiy;
president of the Higher Economics School, Mikhail Shokhin; State Duma deputy Viktor Gerashchenko; Mikhail Delyagin of
the Institute of the Problems of Globalization; State Duma deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov; State Duma deputy Mikhail Zadornov;
journalist Yuliya Latynina; president of the Politika foundation Vyacheslav Nikonov; president of the Opora Rossii
(Support for Russia) organization for small business, Sergey Borisov; former deputy head of the presidential
administration' Aleksey Volin; the vice-president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Igor
Yurgens; and member of the Russian Federation Council Ivan Starikov. There was also a studio audience.
Strictly speaking this debate began with a brief linkup to NTV's No 11 studio, where this debate was staged, at
the end of the preceding programme, the "Country and World" news bulletin. The presenter of "Country and
World" asked Shuster how things had changed since the days where Ivan Silayev was prime minister of Russia. Shuster
pointed out that Silayev was never the second most powerful person in the country. At that time Russia had a
vice-president. The "Country and World" presenters had difficulty interrupting Shuster and one of his
panellists, Aleksandr Shokhin, who had got into full flow, thinking that their programme had already started. Members of
the audience were visibly amused by this embarrassing misunderstanding. A minute or two later "Country and
World" reached its proper conclusion, and the presenters handed over formally to Shuster.
First of all, Shuster explained that there would now be a live video link to special correspondent Violetta Goff
outside the Journalists' House in Moscow, where members of the Moscow "charter of journalists" - elite
journalists on the Moscow scene - were gathered. With snow falling on the participants, the correspondent interviewed
each of these journalists in turn. The first to be interviewed was Ekho Moskvy journalist Aleksey Venediktov. Venediktov
said Kasyanov had been expected to go after the elections, but nobody expected this before the elections. Venediktov
said acting Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko was only a transitional technical figure. He expected Aleksey Kudrin, the
present deputy prime minister and finance minister, to emerge as the substantive prime minister. A female journalist
Veronika Kutsyllo, deputy editor-in-chief of Kommersant-Vlast, said the aim of the dismissal is to liven up a rather
dull election campaign. Vladimir Korsunskiy of Grani Ru. said Putin's action was an election ploy, a diversionary
tactic to steer people's attention away from things like Nord-Ost and the aquapark disaster. Journalist Mikhail
Berger expressed surprise at what happened today, because Putin was always thought of as a cool and calculating person
and this gave the impression of a decision taken in haste. Predictability has gone out the window, he added. Kirill
Rogov of Gazeta Ru. said he expected a fairly liberal figure to be appointed as prime minister. Policies would be
liberal, but the state and authorities illiberal, he added.
Speaking on his own behalf, host Savik Shuster said this marks the ultimate end of Yeltsin's rule, the end of
the Yeltsin epoch. Venediktov disagreed with this view. This won't happen until Putin is re-elected and sworn in
again. Even then, Yeltsin's policies will continue. He says Kudrin is not a liberal. Veronika Kutsyllo said the
Yeltsin era ended before Putin was elected. One thing is sure - Putin will remain president. with a liberal premier. She
expected the Chinese scenario - good economic development, combined with bad internal policies. Korsunskiy did not
expect anything to change - Putin has pulled off a good conjuring trick. Berger said the Yeltsin epoch will only end in
2008 when Putin departs the scene.
At this point Shuster brought in the studio audience. Ten minutes into the programme the studio audience was asked to
indicate whether they would vote in the election or not. The result at this stage was 58.3 per cent intending to vote,
and 41.7 per cent intending not to vote or who have not yet made up their minds. At regular intervals during the
programme, a graph revealed the ebb and flow of this indicator.
Gleb Pavlovskiy, the president of the Effective Policy Foundation, was the first to speak from the studio's main
microphone. Pavlovskiy argued that there was nothing unpredictable about Putin's behaviour. Today's action was
completely planned. Pavlovskiy speculated that Putin would name a candidate for prime minister within the next two
weeks, at any rate by 8 March. Analysing Putin's announcement, Pavlovskiy noted that the president gave the
government three points on a sliding scale of five, in other words "satisfactory". A new policy course was in
the offing. Pavlovskiy specified that today was not a good day for Kasyanov.
Delyagin said that if anybody was looking for surprises in the election campaign, Ivan Rybkin had already provided
them. Pavlovskiy adds that Kasyanov succeeded as a "technologist", but failed as a "politician".
Ryzhkov says nobody can see a plan in Putin's action. Pavlovskiy insists that turnout on 14 March will be far
higher than the studio poll indicates.
Aleksandr Shokhin said he supported Pavlovskiy's analysis in principle. The whole process of naming a new
premier may take two or three weeks, from nomination to approval by the Duma. He speculated that the president might win
the election, in the first round, with a 70 or 80 per cent vote in his favour. He agreed that the Yeltsin epoch has
ended. Putin was going into these elections a free man. He pointed out that Kasyanov did not get round to dealing with
the question of tax reform and Putin was not happy with this "limp" behaviour. Shuster speculated that Putin
found himself forced to act in a hasty manner, elaborating the theory of "improvisation". Pavlovskiy expected
a politically homogenous government to be appointed, pegged to a specific programme. It would be a "presidential
government". Zadornov doubted whether Putin's move was a planned one, having nothing to do with the
elections.
Yuliya Latynina, a journalist, says the man who was really behind today's announcement was the deputy head of
the presidential administration, Vladislav Surkov. The elite intends to divide up Russia's pie, she said. She says
Viktor Khristenko's appointment is a gesture towards the West, which - after the arrest of Khodorkovskiy - believed
that "the organs" had seized power in Russia and Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov would be the next prime
minister. She insisted that Kasyanov cannot be blamed for Nord-Ost or for Chechnya - he was a technical prime minister
more concerned to smooth the way for his own retirement.
Disagreeing with an earlier remark by Pavlovskiy, Delyagin said the present government, the one that has just been
dismissed, is just as "presidential" as the one which will be appointed after the election. After all, people
like Kudrin and Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref and the others have to be appointed by the
president.
Speaking from the main microphone, Ryzhkov said he was surprised and outraged by today's announcement by the
president. Putin has taken a "classic Yeltsin-style decision". Ministers found out about their sacking from TV
reports. This is what is called a "strong decision", he said sarcastically. These remarks were greeted with
general applause. Ryzhkov disagreed with Pavlovskiy's view that Putin was acting in a planned manner. What plan is
there, he asked. Compare this behaviour with what goes on in Britain and Germany. Who did Putin discuss this with? We
remain toys in the hands of one person, the "tsar". The Yeltsin epoch is continuing. This is absolutely
arbitrary, unpredictable and unstable behaviour. We are all hostages of one person, he said. However, Putin is entitled
to do this, he acknowledged. But the way it was done is to treat democracy like a toy. The elections are a farce. This
is very bad news, he insisted.
Vyacheslav Nikonov regretted that he did not have parliamentary immunity because he cannot be as free with his
remarks as some of the previous speakers. He said the elections should not be dismissed so lightly. They are the best
system the country has got. He did not regard the situation as so tragic as Ryzhkov. He saw this as a continuation of
the Russian tradition of PR moves on the eve of an election. Disagreeing with Zadornov, he said it had everything to do
with the elections. If Putin ever criticized Kasyanov, it was because Kasyanov was not ambitious enough in setting
economic targets. He wants more than this in his second term.
Ryzhkov compared the US and Russian election campaigns unfavourably. He complained that other presidential candidates
in Russia were not being allowed access to the media. He cited Sergey Glazyev's experiences in Siberia as an
example of this. Nikonov pointed out that, like Putin, George Bush never takes part in TV debates with minor candidates
who are not likely to get more than 1 or 2 per cent of the votes. Shuster said the president cannot be blamed if he is
supported by 80 per cent of the electorate.
Sergey Borisov, president of the Opora Rossii (Support for Russia) organization for small and medium business, which
was going to stage a conference on administrative reform to which Deputy Prime Minister Boris Aleshin had been invited,
was interviewed as a representative of small business. Speaking at the main microphone, he did not regard today's
events as tragic. He welcomed them as they would speed the process of administrative reform and get away from a system
of "collective irresponsibility". He did not want the future government to veer towards conservatism. He
advocated liberalism, though he did not define what that is.
Aleksey Volin, who used to be deputy presidential chief of staff between 2000 and 2003, saw today's events as
significant because Putin is not going to name a "technical government". Instead, there is going to be a
"political" government. The idea of a "party" government is disappearing. The government agrees its
policy with the whole of society. This is almost a cabinet of national trust. Volin thought this was a very positive
thing.
Taking over from Borisov at the main microphone, Viktor Gerashchenko started off with a digression, saying small
business may be small, but it is still necessary. Gerashchenko described Putin's move as "untimely",
using the English word. When the new Duma was elected last December, Putin should have submitted a new prime minister to
it then. Shuster referred to British press coverage of the story. Gerashchenko and Shuster then engage in a bit of
banter over Shuster's pronunciation of the English word "sacks", which comes out sounding more like
"sex". Gerashchenko says this is a carefully calculated manoeuvre by Putin, who never does anything on the
spur of the moment.
Shuster invited Igor Yurgens, the vice-president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, to speak
at the main microphone on the sacking of Kasyanov. Yurgens, speaking as a representative of "big capital",
said the political analysts who spoke before him had outlined correctly the general background to today's move.
Kasyanov had always been associated with the old "family" - in some ways he was seen as being in opposition to
the president, particularly on the Khodorkovskiy affair. If he had been sacked earlier, he might have been viewed as a
martyr, even as a potential presidential candidate for 2008. To delay any longer would have been wrong, because this
would have allowed Kasyanov to complete any entire presidential term as prime minister. Right now was classically the
right time to get rid of him, so that he does not become a martyr.
Speaking at the main microphone, member of the Russian Federation Council Ivan Starikov said Kasyanov had worked hard
and deserved to be thanked for his efforts. He had helped to avoid a number of "stupidities". Starikov, as a
representative of the Union of Right Forces, said that it would be difficult for a "liberal" government to
pursue liberal economic policies when there were hardly any liberals left in the Duma, other than Ryzhkov and Zadornov.
The best time for Kasyanov to have resigned would have been when Aleksandr Voloshin resigned as head of the presidential
administration.
Yurgens suggested that Boris Gryzlov would be the logical person to appoint as prime minister now, since his party
won the Duma elections. He might even be a "liberal" prime minister.
Delyagin pointed out that Kasyanov had not associated himself with the "family" since spring last year.
Kasyanov protected big business, not just Khodorkovskiy.
In a formal statement at the microphone, Shokhin outlined possible scenarios for the future. One of these was the
possibility that Sergey Mironov, chairman of the Federation Council, might become prime minister. He also thought that a
prime minister appointed from the ranks of the winning Duma parties would be an interesting one. Shokhin started getting
a bit long-winded, and Shuster had to hurry him along. The dictatorship of bureaucrats is unlikely to come to an end, he
thought.
Zadornov also took his turn at the main microphone. As a former finance minister in the Primakov government, he said
Kasyanov was never "sentenced", doomed to be sacked, as some speakers appear to think. He had a 50-per-cent
chance of remaining. He said Kasyanov was always "exceptionally loyal" to the president and could have
expected to work on for another two years. But Zadornov did blame Kasyanov for shelving tax reform and other issues,
like the Forestry Code. Before the elections, he did not want to take the risk and accept political responsibility for
such things. Now certain decisions are likely to be accelerated, decided in March instead of May, he thought. He saw
this as a rational element. He said One Russia leaders had no influence on today's decision.
Delyagin blamed Kasyanov for becoming a political prime minister. A technical president cannot have a political prime
minister.
Zadornov said anyone who has been prime minister for four years is bound to become a political prime minister.
Kasyanov always tried to keep his political views to himself. Only Putin knew the real motives behind his decision.
There is no guarantee that the future government will be a liberal one.
Shuster noted that today's studio audience is very young. At this point he introduced edited highlights from the
portion of the programme that had already been screened. One of these was Pavlovskiy saying far more people would vote
on 14 March than was indicated by the straw poll taken in the studio.
Viktor Gerashchenko took his turn at the main microphone, urging people to have trust in the elections. He said
Kasyanov was the most qualified member of the government. There was nobody in the outgoing government to take his place
"adequately". He said he was impressed by the "spontaneity" of Putin's move - Shuster suggested
he might mean "improvisation".
Ryzhkov said today's events had been incorrectly likened to an "avalanche" or a "flood", as
if they were a natural phenomenon. This overlooked the fact that they were "man-made". We are all living in a
valley, with a mountain above it, from which an avalanche could come at any time - because our fate is in the hands of
one person, the president. Putin has ignored everybody, the electorate, the Duma, the media. Pavlovskiy said there was
little trust in Kasyanov's government. It did not enjoy the people's respect. So, Putin wanted to get rid of
this electoral ballast.
Concluding, Shuster said he personally would not have chosen the day of Lokomotiv's match in the Champions'
League for such an announcement. He would have waited another day.
[NTV Mir] |
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