On Wednesday, the World Bank posted a Russian Economic Report that contains deplorable estimates. Reforms have almost stopped in the country. The government is "resting on their oars". And the economy is more dependent on world oil prices than ever.

The report states that official statistics hampers economic analysis, and hence does not provide sufficiently accurate information. The estimates seem to have changed overnight. Less than a month ago, World Bank President James Wolfensohn voiced a completely different opinion on the national economy at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Nezavisimaya Gazeta pointed out.

In the Russian Economic Report analysts who are not restricted by diplomatic conventions clearly demonstrated that the real situation in the country was much worse than the government's official materials describe. As a main point, experts point out that there are considerable delays in implementing the planned economic reforms. The reforms the government is to implement can face opposition of interested influential circles. If one adds here aptness to feeling self-complacent due to growing export revenues, one will see that launching reforms will once again require hard work, experts note.

Chief economist of the Russian office of the World Bank Christoph Ruehl did not challenge the country's economic growth in 2003 but pointed to a slant in the economy's structure, the Vremya Novostey newspaper wrote. Pseudo-good figures allow resting on one's oars postponing reforms necessary for the country for an uncertain period of time. The role of the oil and gas sector is understated, while the role of the services sector is overestimated, Mr. Ruehl stated.

According to the Russian State Statistics Committee, the services sector is 60 percent of the GDP, while production is only 40 percent. In the opinion of Mr. Ruehl, these figures do not reflect reality, which is testified to by the following fact. The Statistics Committee believes that the share of the oil and gas sector is below 9 percent, while revenues from oil and gas exports overcome 20 percent. According to the World Bank's estimates, the share of the oil and gas industry in the Russian economy is some 25 percent, and it is not the services sector that contributes most to the economy but the industrial production sector. Trade accounts for as little as 11 percent, not the 30 percent official statistics cites. Based on this, one can make a conclusion that for an accelerated growth of the GDP, the government should focus on developing the manufacturing industry. One should not expect the services sector to become a pulling force for economic growth, the economist stressed.

However, Mr. Ruehl does not really think that statistics experts lie deliberately. In his opinion, imperfection of Russian legislation is the problem. To minimize tax payments, many companies sell their products to related institutions that sell them at market prices. This is the cause of slants. This testifies to the fact that the structure of the economy actually differs from the picture government agencies have. And dependence on world oil prices is much higher than it is usually referred to.

Out of 7.2 percent of last year's economic growth, 3.2 percent was due to favorable foreign economic environment. Due to this dependent, economic growth in the new year will hardly exceed 5 percent. According to Mr. Ruehl, never in its contemporary history has the Russian economy advanced more than 5 percent if oil prices did not grow. And these prices have long been high and have to start going down at last. This is why the notorious doubling of the GDP is a rhetorical issue, the Vremya Novostey newspaper wrote. However, Mr. Ruehl pointed out that it was difficult to take this goal seriously as even arithmetic indices show chances next to zero. Though he added that the actual approach is right, the periodical noted.

According to Mr. Ruehl, the volume of revenues that evaded taxation is very high. One should accept the possibility that it is several percent of the GDP. Everyone evades taxes, both state and private enterprises. The World Bank concludes that in the country there are groups that are extremely interested in preserving the current non-transparent business climate.