18 February 2004 12:24
UN: AIDS Spread Threatens Economy
The spread of HIV/AIDS could have calamitous effects on Russia's economy by "brutally altering" the
structure of the population, according to a new report released by the United Nations Development Program on
Tuesday.
The report warns that GDP growth could decrease by up to 1 percent due to a higher mortality rate in the labor force,
while increased health expenditures for people living with AIDS could absorb up to 3 percentage points of gross domestic
product.
"It is too late to avoid a crisis in terms of human cost, and the economic costs will definitely be
significant," said Shombi Sharp, UNDP assistant regional representative and one of the authors of the report.
"But Russia still has the opportunity, through effective responses, to avoid the kind of macroeconomic impact
that has been experienced in other parts of the world."
A "medium" scenario, or 6 percent adult infection rate in 2015, would mean that GDP could be 10 to 12
percent lower by 2040 than it would be without the disease.
Russia's current population of about 144 million could fall as low as 100 million in a medium-case AIDS
epidemic, or 97 million by 2045 in a worst-case scenario, the report states. Without the disease, the population is
projected to be 117 million.
Besides reducing the country's work force and productivity, the spread of HIV would also diminish public and
private savings as well as increase expenses such as wages for firms.
Industries like oil, gas and non-ferrous metals could be especially hard-hit, the report said, because their labor
force is at high risk for HIV infection.
"You quite often find a lot of commercial sex activity in areas surrounding these activities, and large labor
forces comprised of single men," Sharp said.
"In some of these areas, like Irkutsk and Khanty-Mansiisk, HIV infection is 300 percent or more above the
national average."
Russia, Ukraine and Estonia have the fastest HIV growth rates in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The
region has one of the fastest HIV growth rates in the world.
"We're hitting the tripwire of 1 percent infection rate among adults, at which there's a high
likelihood of acceleration of the disease," said UNDP director Mark Brown.
While HIV in Russia has been most prominent among drug users, prisoners, homosexuals and sex workers, "the
disease is spreading over from these groups to the mainstream," Brown said.
UN officials stressed that the government will need to craft new methods for dealing with the problem than it has
used in the past.
"Russia is much too fond of big institutions -- particularly prisons -- for solving social problems," Brown
said.
"Democracy is not a prophylactic, but lack of attention to human rights is a problem."
The federal government yearly spends less than 5 rubles per person to fight HIV/AIDS, according to Mikko Vienonen,
head of the World Health Organization's Moscow office.
"That's the cost of a pack of Belomor cigarettes," Vienonen said. "And this is a country with a
huge budget surplus.
"[AIDS] is the biggest epidemic in history. We've already gone over the Black Death in the 13th century --
this is a bigger threat."
.TX-..**********************************************
[The Moscow Times] |
RUSSIA IN FACTS
