More than 55 per cent of the Russian electorate took part in December's parliamentary elections. The results stunned many observers. They seemed to reflect serious changes in the country's political landscape.
The political forces that dominated the 1990s were considerably weakened. The Communists, who had almost half the 450 seats in the Duma between 1996 and 1999, now have only 52. The conclusion is obvious: Russia is gradually bidding farewell to communism. But what is going to replace it? The main opponents of the Communists, the "traditional" liberal parties - Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS) - fared even worse, winning fewer than 10 seats. Another surprise was the gains made by nationalist and ultra-nationalist parties, notably the Liberal Democrat Party of Russia (Vladimir Zhirinovsky's party) and the Motherland bloc, which both received.
What does this mean? Will tomorrow's Russia become less liberal? Will it turn away from the path of democracy and market reform, and towards nationalism and authoritarianism?
Such fears are unjustified. In fact, the elections reinforced the political base for continued democratic and economic reforms. Today, the conservative-centrist factions of the United Russia party have a constitutional majority of 300 votes in the new Duma. This party has been the main source of political support for President Vladimir Putin in recent Political stability - one of our main achievements of recent years - has been confirmed and legitimised by the Russian people.
This is extremely important for the economy. Russia's need for long-term investment, including from overseas, can hardly be satisfied without clear ground rules for the economy. In recent years, helped by the Duma's conservative-centrist majority, Mr Putin has secured the adoption of laws essential for market reforms. These have eased the tax burden, liberalised hard currency regulation and brought in pension, customs and land reforms.
Judicial reforms are particularly important. An independent and competent judiciary, protecting the rights of everyone, is an essential part of a prosperous society. The importance that people attach to the judiciary helps explain why the Yukos case became such a talking point for Russian and foreign media just before the polls. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of the oil company, was accused of tax evasion and taken into custody. But whatever the outcome, one point should be noted: this is not a story about prosecutors "hounding businessmen", but about equality before the law for everyone, however wealthy.
And that is part of the reason the centrists won. They took up the presidential policy of bolstering stability and creating equal, transparent and just conditions for economic life and made it their political platform. In effect, they took the initiative from Russia's traditional liberal parties.
Naturally, the liberal wing's defeat is no cause for unqualified joy, as all the significant political parties should be represented in the Duma. Besides, the liberal reforms need the support of the greatest possible range of political and public forces. One can only hope that the liberals will not leave the political scene, not least because millions of Russians share their aims.
But if they are ever to make a comeback, they will have to wake up to the fact that Russian liberalism needs to become more socially aware. The economic reforms of the 1990s have failed to attract everyone to the market economy. Tens of millions of people have been left on the sidelines. Today, 31m people have incomes below the subsistence minimum. The fact that only a year ago this figure stood at 37m is a source of hope. At the same time, the subsistence minimum in Russia of Rbs2,121 ($74) a month is very low. Politicians will have to pay far more attention to the problem of poverty.
Social programmes could help, but they will not be the most important means of overcoming poverty. A competitive economy should do this primarily with the help of the market - through the modernisation of production facilities, the creation of new jobs and the development of competition. This is a key point of the conservative-centrist programme.
The first post-election year should show how effective and successful the conservative-centrist policies have been. 2004 will be when the enthusiasm and hopes generated by the Duma elections will be at their strongest. Russia needs to make good use of this time.