- What is your opinion on the role that the Yukos affair could play in the Russian-American business relations? Will it seriously harm them?
- I don’t think there will be any serious long-term damage to Russian-American business relations. Just as many are claiming that this action was political in nature, the US reaction would also appear to be heavily politically based. Some of the recent discussions regarding pricing some of Russia’s oil exports in Euros seems to me far more likely to seriously damage Russian-American business relations if they are pursued.
- Will the incentives to investing into Russian economy decline dramatically for the foreign companies?
- I don’t think so. The real economic indicators and reform of the past few years provide incentives that are still far too attractive to ignore. Just last week I took part in a conference in Boston highlighting the opportunities in the retail/consumer market in Russia. While the participants may well have had the burning question of YUKOS on their minds and of course one would think they would leap at the opportunity to ask these executives heavily invested in Russia’s economy their viewpoint, in fact, other more pertinent questions were raised. If the question of YUKOS came up, perhaps it was one-on-one at the lunch table, but I don’t think any of these business people felt it was immediately relevant to the subject matter at hand – which was investment in Russia’s growing market.
- What is your personal opinion on the matter, if the investment rating of Russia should be lowered?
- On the basis of this particular event, no. The rating was not raised purely on the basis of YUKOS, nor should it be lowered based on it – not at this point anyway. The pressure is on the Kremlin of course to play this out in a way that demonstrates the rule of law in the country and an awareness of investors’ rights. Putin has shown by many of his recent actions that he is indeed aware of the options he has right now and while he will not turn back, I believe efforts will be made to move forward in accordance with Russian law, to bear in mind the possible effects on the market, and to contain any further fallout.