29 October 2003 14:40
Voloshin Wants Out of Kremlin
 Presidential chief of staff Alexander Voloshin tendered his resignation Saturday in protest of the arrest of Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky, but the bargaining still seemed to be going on late into Tuesday evening over whether President Vladimir Putin would accept his request, analysts said, citing sources in the Kremlin administration.
A Kremlin source said in a telephone interview that as of Tuesday evening Voloshin was continuing to carry out his duties. He could not say, however, whether that might change on Wednesday. He said he could not comment on whether Voloshin had actually tendered his resignation because that was "a personal matter."
Ekho Moskvy, citing Kremlin sources, reported at 5:15 p.m. that Voloshin had tendered his resignation, but five minutes later retracted the report. Other news sources reported heavy traffic and a lot of cars with sirens around the Kremlin on Tuesday evening, a sign something big was afoot.
If true, a decision by Voloshin to tender his resignation would dramatically up the stakes for Putin in the Yukos affair. If Voloshin steps down, it could seriously destabilize the political situation, heavily tipping the scales in a political system that so far has been based on Putin balancing two opposing Kremlin clans against each other, analysts said.
A move by Voloshin out of the Kremlin at a time when parliamentary elections are looming in December could damage the Kremlin's election campaign, they said.
Voloshin has been the wily strategist behind the Kremlin machine ever since his appointment to the post by President Boris Yeltsin in March 1999 took the political establishment by surprise. Everyone then predicted the previously little-known financier would not stay long, but Voloshin ended up outlasting all of his predecessors.
As a former close associate of Boris Berezovsky, Voloshin has always been seen as the main protector of the interests of the so-called Family, the group of oligarchs and politicians who gained vast wealth and power during Yeltsin's rule. The onslaught against Yukos that culminated this weekend with the arrest of Khodorkovsky has been seen as part of a fight for position ahead of Putin's second term between the Family and a new Kremlin power group, the siloviki, which came to power on Putin's coattails and appears hungry for more power.
"If the resignation is accepted, it means Putin has clearly moved over to the side of the siloviki," said independent political analyst Andrei Piont-kovsky. "That would mean a serious change in the political system and in the balance of forces. Putin would become a hostage to one of the groups."
Piontkovsky said well-informed sources had told him of Voloshin's resignation request. He said it seemed that Putin may have turned it down at first, but that negotiations may have flared up again Tuesday evening.
An aide to Voloshin, PR guru Gleb Pavlovsky appeared to be burning bridges at an Open Forum discussion Tuesday by saying that the system of "managed democracy" Voloshin had tried to create just had not worked and it was time to go into real politics. Pavlovsky himself was busy in meetings late into Tuesday evening and could not be reached for comment.
Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst, said Voloshin's departure would cause a crisis in the political system.
"It would lead to the dismantling of the current regime and it would hit the Duma campaign. Voloshin was the one who managed the political regime and took care of the Kremlin's Duma campaign. It's difficult to see who would replace him," Markov said.
"His resignation would lead to a strengthening of the totalitarian system. If the system of 'managed democracy' that Voloshin created did not work, then we are not going to have more democracy if he steps down."
Rumors have been swirling around Voloshin's impending resignation ever since the Yukos scandal first broke this summer with the arrest of core shareholder Platon Lebedev.
But Khodorkovsky's arrest Saturday signals Voloshin and the Family's defeat in the power struggle and it would be the logical step for the Kremlin chief of staff to step down, Piontkovsky said.
Other observers predicted that Putin would try to keep him until at least after the State Duma elections. "If suddenly before the elections Putin was to get rid of his chief of staff it would certainly be an unusual move," said James Fenkner, head of research at Troika Dialog. "Everyone expects it to occur after the elections."
Lilia Shevtsova, senior political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said that if Putin decides to try to persuade Voloshin to stay on board and "restore balance, he will have to make concessions to the Yeltsin group."
But others said it could prove impossible for Putin to back down now, especially on the Yukos affair. "It seems there is no doubt that Putin is not going to budge even an inch on Yukos," Markov said.
"Putin's move toward the siloviki already seems clear enough, judging by his speech yesterday," Piontkovsky added. "I think Voloshin is going to go in the next few days."
If Voloshin goes, Khodorkovsky could find himself with less protection if the state attempts to use his jailing to gain control of his Yukos stake.
"The real question now is what's going to happen to Khodorkovsky's assets," Fenkner said. "Voloshin could have tried to protect Khodorkovsky in some way."
Stanislav Belkovsky, the man seen as one of the forces behind the Yukos attack by the publication of his June report that Khodorkovsky was launching a creeping coup to take over the Duma, said Voloshin's resignation would be "a good thing for the country." He said it would have no impact on the Duma election campaign because United Russia "had not earned the love of the people" anyway.
It would draw a clear line under the Yeltsin era, he said.
He said sources in the Kremlin had told him of the resignation request, but it remained unclear whether Putin would accept it.
The Moscow Times
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