30 September 2003 00:54
Putin`s gamble: The European Union should call Russia`s bluff
The World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere opened yesterday in Moscow,
providing Russian President Vladimir Putin with a perfect opportunity to
announce Russia's ratification of the Kyoto agreement. He did not take
it, continuing the studied obfuscation that has characterised Russia's
approach. The international response should be unyielding.
The Kyoto agreement, designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated
with climate change, will come into effect only if ratified by countries
responsible for 55 per cent of those emissions. With the US and Australia
having refused ratification, Russia's participation is now required to
meet this threshold.
Russia has abused this position. At the World Summit on Sustainable
Development in Johannesburg, Mikhail Kasyanov, the Russian prime minister,
told delegates that ratification would take place "in the very nearest
future". Yesterday, over a year later, Mr Putin was still stalling in
his speech to the Moscow conference.
The Kyoto agreement is a gift to Russia. Because of the fall in Russian
industrial production since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian
emissions have fallen relative to the Kyoto base year of 1990. That means
Moscow needs to make no cuts in its emission levels, and stands to gain up to
Dollars 10bn a year from selling spare emission permits internationally.
Delay is hard to understand but the most likely explanation is simple
brinkmanship. The Russians believe the treaty is worth more to others than to
Russia.
So far the response from other governments to Mr Putin's speech has been
firm. That is the right approach.
Both Canada and the European Union have affirmed that they will meet their
treaty obligations whether or not the treaty becomes binding. But the real
significance of the treaty is that it provides a framework for building
institutions necessary to make progress on climate change, including an
international permit trading system and a mechanism for rich countries to
gain credit by investing in clean technology in poorer countries.
Such institutions are growing in strength, and investments in efficient new
power plants that could have gone to Russia have already been installed in
countries such as Romania. Mr Putin's lukewarm speech was just
encouraging enough about eventual ratification that such progress will
continue. Further delay hurts Russia most and the EU, the most powerful
advocate of the treaty, must be willing to call its bluff.
But if Russia withdraws, the fragile institutions for emissions trading and
cross-border investments may be severely damaged. The EU needs to take the
lead in reiterating the benefits for Russia, while emphasising that further
sweeteners will not be forthcoming. Mr Putin is a pragmatic man and, the
sooner it is clear there is nothing to be gained by holding out, the sooner
Russia will ratify the treaty.
[FTI [The Financial Times]] |
RUSSIA IN FACTS
