19 September 2003 20:54
Iran, Russia and nuclear power
Russia last Saturday gave unequivocal support to the demand by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran be given seven weeks to let the IAEA verify that it had no nuclear weapons programme. The demand came after intense pressure from the US that Iran be made to answer outstanding questions about its nuclear programme. The Iranian government, which denies it has a nuclear weapons programme, reacted angrily to this demand. Several quarters of the Iranian establishment see the 31 October deadline set by the IAEA as a move by the US toward an eventual invasion of Iran. However, just 24 hours later, Russian atomic energy minister Aleksandr Rumyantsev told the IAEA general conference here that his country saw no reason to halt nuclear co-operation with Iran. He stressed the peaceful use of nuclear power and reiterated that the construction, in Bushehr, of a nuclear power plant would continue. The statement was obviously made with the intention of smoothing ruffled Iranian diplomatic feathers. But it was a clear indication, again, that Russia does not believe Iran has a nuclear weapons programme. However, the Russians are aware that there exists a strong lobby for such a programme, especially among elements of Iranšs military. These argue that possession of nuclear weapons is a clear deterrent against the US and will not harm the economic and trade prospects of the country. There is considerable logic to this argument. It is pointed out by the weapons programme protagonists, for example, that Pakistan received initial opprobrium when it became a nuclear power, but that this did not affect its long-term international standing. The major argument, in a country where it is widely believed that a US attack is probably imminent, is North Korea. Despite clearly expressed hostility toward North Korea, the US has not threatened military action against what is the only nuclear power in what the US administration has termed an OEaxis of evilš. Some attempts may, therefore, have been made to start a weapons programme, but it seems unlikely that a decision has been made to develop nuclear capability. After some more shadow boxing, it is also likely that Iran will concede to the IAEA demands for further inspections, confident that no weapons programme will be uncovered.
[AIW [Asia Africa Intelligence Wire]] |
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