18 September 2003 01:08
Iranian power project generates tension between US and Russia: Andrew Jack reports on a diplomatic dance that revolves round the Bushehr nuclear station
With its 50 metrepenthouse swimming pool, French marble-clad exterior,
Grecian pillars and fountain, one of Moscow's first modern office
buildings looks as though it should have been built for a private oil magnate
rather than a branch of Russia's Ministry of Atomic Energy.
The Dollars 40m (Euros 35.6m, Pounds 25m) headquarters, completed in 1996 for
Konverse Bank, a bank controlled until recently by "MinAtom", is
testament to the financial flows of a nuclear industry spun out of the Soviet
Union's military machine.
Today it generates export revenues of more than Dollars 3bn a year.
MinAtom's sales of nuclear expertise - notably to Iran - are an
important source of export earnings. But they are also a problem for
Moscow's fledgling partnership with the US and they will be on the
agenda of John Bolton, US deputy secretary of state, who arrived in Moscow
yesterday for a conference on proliferation.
For the past decade, after western suppliers withdrew from the construction
of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power station, MinAtom has taken up the slack.
The deal, worth about Dollars 1bn, should lead to Bushehr's launch in
2005, but has triggered fears of its misuse.
"Iran is not a stable country politically, and you don't know who
will be in charge in three or five years. Stopping the programme would help
global security," says Vladimir Slivyak from Ecodefence, a Russian anti-
nuclear lobby group.
The US has long pushed Moscow to stop its co-operation on Bushehr, as well as
on a broader series of arms and technology deals. It has even imposed
sanctions on Russian research institutes and companies involved in exports to
Iran.
The pressure may be working: a senior US official told the FT that Russia had
decided to put off the first shipment of nuclear fuel to Bushehr to next
spring. The delivery had been scheduled for late this year.
Earlier this month, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International
Atomic Energy Agency, passed a resolution giving Iran until October 31 to
give full details of its nuclear programme.
The direct danger from Bushehr is still under debate. "Neither Iran nor
Russia has violated any agreement, and we are in line with the guidelines of
the IAEA," says Alexander Rumyantsev, head of MinAtom.
He stresses that as a condition for completion of the power station, Iran
must first finalise a contract committing it to return all spent nuclear fuel
to Russia for reprocessing and storage, further limiting any prospect for
proliferation.
While the IAEA has been pushing for Iran to sign an "additional
protocol" to provide for supplementary nuclear inspections, Mohammed
ElBaradei, the head of the agency, himself says he sees no risks of
proliferation from Bushehr itself.
However, the US argues that it could be used as a cover for a military
nuclear programme, if only through training specialists.
"The Russians have too much faith in their nuclear skills and don't
believe the Iranians are capable of replicating them," says one senior
US diplomat.
The recent discovery of undisclosed fuel enrichment facilities in Iran,
despite continued official assurances that it has no interest in helping a
military nuclear programme, has sparked fresh concern in Russia as well as
the US and the EU.
President Vladimir Putin's own statements and actions in recent months
indicate a change in tack on nuclear co-operation, suggesting a shift away
from a purely commercial logic.
He replaced Sergei Adamov, the former head of MinAtom accused of corruption,
with Mr Rumyantsev, and installed others from his own circle in key
positions.
"Before, the position on Iran depended not just on the president but on
the atomic industry. Now the managers listen to the political orders and
obey," says Mr Slivyak, who argues that there has been a significant
increase in Russian caution towards Tehran in the past six months.
Mr Putin and other senior officials have stepped up their calls for Iran to
comply with the IAEA's additional protocol, even while refusing to make
it a condition for Bushehr's completion. The result, combined with the
US's preoccupation with Iraq, seems set to ensure that Bushehr will not
be a "relationship-breaker" with Moscow.
While its refusal to complete the power station could put additional pressure
on Tehran to comply with the IAEA, Alexander Pikaev, an academic from the
Carnegie Moscow Centre, argues that going ahead could be wiser: Russia
supplying its own fuel on condition it is returned afterwards would be safer
than pushing Iran to develop its own supplies, which would be far more
difficult to track.
Russia may be hoping that continued "technical delays" in signing
its own long-delayed contract for the return of spent fuel with Iran at
Bushehr will win it time for the US and others to persuade Tehran to comply
with the IAEA's additional protocol.
Mr Putin could then be seen to have supported Iran and not given in to
international pressure.
[FTI [The Financial Times]] |
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