10 September 2003 00:50
Hopes grow that Russians will ratify Kyoto pact
Speculation that the Kyoto Protocol on climate change could come into force
soon has heightened since an announcement that Russia has completed the
documents necessary for the treaty's ratification.
Ever since the US decided to abandon the protocol in March 2001, Russia has
held the key to the future of the agreement, which aims to curb greenhouse
gas emissions from industrialised countries. The treaty, which needs the
support of countries responsible for 55 per cent of the industrialised
world's emissions, will come into force if Russia decides to ratify it.
But there is still uncertainty about Moscow's intentions. President
Vladimir Putin announced in 2002 that Russia was preparing to ratify the
protocol, but since then there have been conflicting comments from ministers
and their deputies.
Mr Putin will open the World Climate Change Conference on September 29. But
speculation that Russia would ratify it before then was brushed aside
yesterday by Mukhamed Tsikhanov, deputy economic development minister, who
said the draft laws could take up to six months to consider.
Progress is complicated by the run-up to parliamentary elections in December,
with some "nationalist-patriotic" politicians arguing that curbs on
emissions would threaten future growth, according to Eco Defence, a Russian
environmental group.
The debate is fuelled by some complex scientific, economic and diplomatic
issues. The main factors concern "(Russia's) geopolitical status,
its ambiguous attitude to the UN, as well as some continuing uncertainty
about the science and how severe a threat climate change really poses to a
large, cold country," according to a recent report by London's
Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Some of these issues will be discussed at the climate conference, a
scientific meeting initiated by Mr Putin. It will hear, for instance, that
global warming is likely to expand Russia's growing season and the area
under cultivation. But it will also bring more forest fires and disruption to
industries such as mining and construction.
As well as the direct impact of climate change, the government must take
account of the potential impact of climate change control measures on its
industry, particularly oil and gas. Although a government analysis this
summer showed that the Kyoto Protocol would impose no immediate constraints
on Russia's development, it could be hampered by future, more stringent,
agreements.
However, any long-term economic concerns could be outweighed by the
short-term financial gains promised by the protocol.
Under Kyoto, Russia promised to stabilise its emissions at 1990 levels by
2008-2012. The collapse of much of its industrial base reduced its emission
below that point, allowing it to sell its excess emissions allowances to
other countries for as much as Dollars 10bn (Euros 8.9bn, Pounds 6.3bn).
[FTI [The Financial Times]] |
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