01 September 2004 14:24
Japan PM eyes history over Russian-held islands
When Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi sails off on Thursday to gaze at a cluster of forlorn Russian-held islands, he'll be hoping to one day earn a place in history as the leader who reclaimed them for Japan. The islands, which lie near Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido, were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two, and the row over ownership has prevented Tokyo and Moscow from signing a peace treaty.
Political analysts say Koizumi, now entering what are likely to be his final two years in office, is gambling that he can do better than his predecessors in resolving the dispute.
"Koizumi has set himself the task of doing something that would make him a historical figure," said Takashi Inoguchi, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo.
One of those tasks is reforming Japan's postal system, he said. The other is to recover the islands from Russia – "get back the territories and create a more robust relationship."
The islands have limited economic or strategic value, but the question of sovereignty touches national pride in both countries.
"It's a domestic nationalism issue," said Yasunori Sone, a political science professor at Keio University.
The four islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kuriles by Russia, lie 1,000 km (620 miles) north of Tokyo.
About 17,000 Japanese lived there when the Soviet Union invaded in 1945, forcing them to leave.
Now, an estimated 14,000 Russians reside on the islands, mostly ekeing out a living by fishing.
Koizumi's trip on a coast guard patrol boat comes just months before an expected visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin early next year to mark the 150th anniversary of the first trade treaty between the two countries. Moscow has denounced Koizumi's trip, saying it would complicate efforts to forge a peace treaty. Koizumi will not land on the islands.
But some Japanese critics have accused him of trying to curry favour with right-wing members of his party and the public. In an effort to pressure Moscow, Tokyo has been sending the message that the dispute hinders Japanese investment in Russia.
Nevertheless, Japanese trade and investment in Russia are on the rise, especially in the energy sector.
Some experts say that concerns about Russia's political stability and infrastructure are bigger obstacles to deeper economic ties than the island dispute.
"I think Japanese are interested in investing in Russia if it is politically stable and abides by the rule of law, but these factors are not present right now," Inoguchi said.
Japanese exports to Russia rose by 40 percent in 2003/04 to March while Japan's direct investment doubled over the previous fiscal year, according to Japan's foreign ministry.
Japan ranks sixth in terms of overall investment in Russia but last year became the biggest foreign investor in the energy-rich Russian Far East.
"Japanese companies' interest in promoting trade, especially exports from Japan, is expanding and I believe the trend will continue," said a Japanese trade official.
Energy-starved Japan also hopes to persuade Moscow to build a multibillion dollar oil pipeline from Eastern Siberia to Nakhadoka on Russia's Pacific coast instead of a rival project to China to help reduce Tokyo's dependence on Middle East oil.
Koizumi may be gazing at the future when he views the islands on Thursday, but analysts said his new agenda was risky. "This is a long-standing historical problem and is is not that easy to resolve," Keio University's Sone said.
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